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Primeira Liga
Referee: Cláudio Pereira
Belenenses
U T T T T
0–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Vitoria Setubal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,0
Conceded
2,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,5
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 17/16 matches
Win Ø 25%
24%
25%
Points per game
0,9
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 30%
35%
25%
Both score Ø 30%
35%
25%
Average goals
2,5
1,6
Scored
0,7
0,6
Conceded
1,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,1
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

63% Possession 37%
17 Shots 10
1 Shots on target 4
7 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
15 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 18. · Vitoria Setubal 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 18 17 0 1 +37 51
2 Porto 18 14 2 2 +28 44
3 Famalicao 17 10 3 4 +8 33
4 Sp Lisbon 18 10 2 6 +10 32
5 Sp Braga 18 8 3 7 +6 27
6 Guimaraes 18 6 8 4 +7 26
7 Rio Ave 17 7 4 6 +2 25
8 Gil Vicente 17 5 7 5 +0 22
9 Setubal 17 5 7 5 -6 22
10 Tondela 18 5 6 7 -4 21
11 Maritimo 17 4 8 5 -7 20
12 Boavista 17 4 7 6 -3 19
13 Moreirense 18 4 7 7 -4 19
14 Vitoria Setubal 16 4 7 5 -7 19
15 Santa Clara 18 4 6 8 -9 18
16 Pacos Ferreira 17 4 3 10 -12 15
17 Portimonense 18 2 9 7 -12 15
18 Belenenses 17 4 3 10 -19 15
19 Aves 18 3 0 15 -15 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Belenenses Vitoria Setubal
25′
🟨 José Semedo
31′
🟨 Braian Mansilla
39′
Hélder Guedes 0–1
Sílvio
Half-time 0–1
55′
🟨 João Meira
Robinho 🔁
↦ André Sousa
64′
Marco Matias 🔁
↦ Silvestre Varela
70′
70′
🔁 Leandro Vilela
↦ Zequinha
74′
🟨 Giorgi Makaridze
Tomás Ribeiro 🟨
79′
82′
🔁 Artur Jorge
↦ Éber Bessa
83′
🟨 André Sousa
Kikas 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Silva
83′
86′
🔁 Jubal
↦ João Meira
Nilton 🟨
87′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Belenenses

3-4-3
1 André Moreira G
66 Nuno Coelho D
37 Gonçalo Silva D
28 Tomás Ribeiro D
25 Nilton Varela M
26 André Santos M
8 André Sousa M
13 Tiago Esgaio M
7 Licá F
20 Silvestre Varela F
30 M. Cassierra F
Bench (7)
75 Robinho
77 Marco Matias
9 Kikas
6 Show
15 H. Ouro-Sama
5 Francisco Varela
82 João Monteiro

Coach: Petit

Vitoria Setubal

4-2-3-1
90 G. Makaridze G
17 Sílvio D
66 João Meira D
24 Bruno Pires D
16 André Sousa D
29 José Semedo M
10 Éber Bessa M
76 Carlinhos M
87 Zequinha M
7 Hélder Guedes F
22 B. Mansilla M
Bench (7)
34 Leandro Vilela
4 Artur Jorge
3 Jubal
8 Nuno Valente
9 K. Hachadi
21 Nuno Pinto
12 Milton Raphael

Coach: Julio Velázquez

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Cláudio Pereira · 78 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.