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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Tondela

S S S T U

0–2

Full-time

Aves

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 25%

28%

22%

Points per game

1,1

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 64%

67%

61%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

6 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 12. · Aves 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	18	15	1	2	+27	46
2	Benfica	18	13	2	3	+21	41
3	Sp Braga	18	12	4	2	+18	40
4	Sp Lisbon	18	12	2	4	+16	38
5	Belenenses	18	7	8	3	+5	29
6	Guimaraes	18	8	4	6	+4	28
7	Moreirense	18	9	1	8	-4	28
8	Portimonense	18	8	3	7	-2	27
9	Rio Ave	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Santa Clara	18	6	3	9	-2	21
11	Maritimo	19	6	2	11	-11	20
12	Tondela	18	5	4	9	-4	19
13	Vitoria Setubal	18	5	4	9	-4	19
14	Nacional	18	5	4	9	-14	19
15	Boavista	18	4	4	10	-9	16
16	Aves	18	4	3	11	-12	15
17	Feirense	18	2	8	8	-13	14
18	Chaves	18	3	3	12	-15	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Sp Braga	9	8	1	0	+15	25
3	Porto	9	8	0	1	+17	24
4	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Portimonense	9	5	3	1	+6	18
6	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+4	17
7	Moreirense	8	5	1	2	+3	16
8	Rio Ave	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Belenenses	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Aves	10	3	3	4	+1	12
11	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
12	Vitoria Setubal	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Boavista	9	3	1	5	-3	10
14	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Nacional	10	3	1	6	-9	10
16	Feirense	8	1	5	2	-1	8
17	Chaves	9	2	2	5	-4	8
18	Santa Clara	10	2	1	7	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+9	22
3	Sp Braga	9	4	3	2	+3	15
4	Santa Clara	8	4	2	2	+4	14
5	Belenenses	9	3	5	1	+2	14
6	Moreirense	10	4	0	6	-7	12
7	Guimaraes	9	3	2	4	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	8	3	1	4	+0	10
9	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-6	10
10	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-4	9
11	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-5	9
12	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
13	Tondela	9	2	2	5	-3	8
14	Rio Ave	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	Boavista	9	1	3	5	-6	6
16	Feirense	10	1	3	6	-12	6
17	Chaves	9	1	1	7	-11	4
18	Aves	8	1	0	7	-13	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.