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Primeira Liga
Referee: Sergio Piscarreta
Tondela
T T
1–0
Full-time
Nacional
T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,0
Scored
0,5
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Tondela 16. · Nacional 11. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 3 2 1 0 +5 7
2 Benfica 3 2 0 1 +4 6
3 Arouca 2 2 0 0 +3 6
4 Vitoria Setubal 3 1 2 0 +4 5
5 Rio Ave 3 1 2 0 +1 5
6 Sp Lisbon 2 1 1 0 +1 4
7 Boavista 2 1 1 0 +1 4
8 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 1 0 +1 4
9 U. Madeira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Sp Braga 2 1 0 1 +0 3
11 Nacional 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Estoril 3 1 0 2 -4 3
13 Belenenses 2 0 2 0 +0 2
14 Maritimo 2 0 1 1 -1 1
15 Guimaraes 2 0 1 1 -3 1
16 Tondela 2 0 0 2 -2 0
17 Moreirense 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Academica 2 0 0 2 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Tondela Nacional
Half-time 1–0
1–0 Kaká ⚽
48′
55′
🔁 Luís Aurélio
↦ Wanderson
Hélder Tavares 🔁
↦ Raphael Guzzo
63′
63′
🔁 João Camacho
↦ Washington Santana
Nuno Santos 🔁
↦ C. Amado
72′
74′
🔁 Gustavo
↦ B. Fofana
Hélder Tavares 🟨
90′
Kaká 🟨
90′
M. Berger 🔁
↦ J. Murillo
90′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Tondela

12 M. Jones
4 Kaká D
24 Luís Tinoco
2 Bruno Nascimento D
20 Luis Alberto M
27 Bruno Monteiro M
21 Edu Machado D
30 Raphael Guzzo M
11 Nathan Junior F
9 C. Amado
15 J. Murillo F
Bench (7)
41 Hélder Tavares
17 Nuno Santos
5 M. Berger
89 Salva Chamorro
1 Claudio Ramos
45 Romário Baldé
7 Luís Machado

Nacional

1 Gottardi G
3 Zainadine Junior D
5 Sequeira D
17 B. Fofana M
33 Rui Correia D
2 João Aurélio D
89 Washington Santana M
8 Nenê Bonilha M
18 Tiquinho F
7 Salvador Agra M
11 Wanderson
Bench (7)
30 Luís Aurélio
77 João Camacho
9 Gustavo
4 Alan Henrique
12 Rui Silva
68 Edgar Abreu
22 Nuno Campos

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sergio Piscarreta · 11 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
6,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
11,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,50 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.