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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Tondela

T U T T S

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 14%

14%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

45%

38%

Both score Ø 45%

52%

38%

Average goals

2,4

2,2

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	29	22	5	2	+47	71
2	Porto	29	20	8	1	+49	68
3	Sp Lisbon	29	19	6	4	+31	63
4	Guimaraes	29	15	8	6	+12	53
5	Sp Braga	29	14	9	6	+17	51
6	Maritimo	29	12	8	9	+0	44
7	Rio Ave	30	12	6	12	-1	42
8	Chaves	29	8	12	9	-1	36
9	Boavista	29	8	11	10	-3	35
10	Vitoria Setubal	29	9	8	12	-3	35
11	Feirense	29	10	5	14	-18	35
12	Belenenses	29	8	8	13	-14	32
13	Arouca	30	9	4	17	-20	31
14	Pacos Ferreira	29	6	11	12	-12	29
15	Estoril	29	7	7	15	-11	28
16	Moreirense	29	6	6	17	-18	24
17	Nacional	29	4	8	17	-27	20
18	Tondela	29	4	8	17	-28	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	2	0	+32	41
2	Benfica	15	12	3	0	+34	39
3	Sp Lisbon	14	11	2	1	+22	35
4	Sp Braga	15	9	4	2	+16	31
5	Maritimo	14	9	3	2	+10	30
6	Chaves	15	6	7	2	+6	25
7	Rio Ave	15	7	4	4	+4	25
8	Vitoria Setubal	15	7	3	5	+4	24
9	Guimaraes	14	6	5	3	+5	23
10	Pacos Ferreira	14	5	7	2	+3	22
11	Arouca	15	6	1	8	-4	19
12	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-4	17
13	Feirense	15	5	2	8	-10	17
14	Boavista	14	4	4	6	+2	16
15	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-6	15
16	Moreirense	14	2	6	6	-5	12
17	Nacional	15	2	6	7	-9	12
18	Estoril	14	3	2	9	-9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Guimaraes	15	9	3	3	+7	30
3	Sp Lisbon	15	8	4	3	+9	28
4	Porto	14	7	6	1	+17	27
5	Sp Braga	14	5	5	4	+1	20
6	Boavista	15	4	7	4	-5	19
7	Feirense	14	5	3	6	-8	18
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-2	17
9	Rio Ave	15	5	2	8	-5	17
10	Belenenses	14	4	3	7	-10	15
11	Maritimo	15	3	5	7	-10	14
12	Moreirense	15	4	0	11	-13	12
13	Arouca	15	3	3	9	-16	12
14	Chaves	14	2	5	7	-7	11
15	Vitoria Setubal	14	2	5	7	-7	11
16	Nacional	14	2	2	10	-18	8
17	Pacos Ferreira	15	1	4	10	-15	7
18	Tondela	15	0	5	10	-22	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.