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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Mota da Silva
Moreirense
S S S T T
2–1
Full-time
Nacional
S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Nacional
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,3
1,0
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-1,0
This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 39%
50%
28%
Points per game
1,6
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
50%
56%
Both score Ø 44%
44%
44%
Average goals
2,3
2,9
Scored
1,1
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,8
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%
15 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
6 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Moreirense 7. · Nacional 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 18 15 1 2 +27 46
2 Benfica 18 13 2 3 +21 41
3 Sp Braga 18 12 4 2 +18 40
4 Sp Lisbon 18 12 2 4 +16 38
5 Belenenses 18 7 8 3 +5 29
6 Guimaraes 18 8 4 6 +4 28
7 Moreirense 18 9 1 8 -4 28
8 Portimonense 18 8 3 7 -2 27
9 Rio Ave 19 6 6 7 -1 24
10 Santa Clara 18 6 3 9 -2 21
11 Maritimo 19 6 2 11 -11 20
12 Tondela 18 5 4 9 -4 19
13 Vitoria Setubal 18 5 4 9 -4 19
14 Nacional 18 5 4 9 -14 19
15 Boavista 18 4 4 10 -9 16
16 Aves 18 4 3 11 -12 15
17 Feirense 18 2 8 8 -13 14
18 Chaves 18 3 3 12 -15 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Moreirense Nacional
1–0 Chiquinho
15′
31′
🟨 Julio Cesar
Half-time 1–0
D. Texeira 🔁
↦ Nenê
46′
46′
🔁 A. Paločević
↦ Jota
2–0 Chiquinho
D. Texeira
56′
62′
🔁 João Camacho
↦ K. Gorré
71′
🟨 Okacha Hamzaoui
Fábio Pacheco 🟨
76′
81′
🔁 G. Arabidze
↦ Sérgio Marakis
Pedro Nuno 🔁
↦ Arsénio
82′
84′
🟨 Joao Camacho
87′
O. Hamzaoui 2–1
A. Paločević
Neto 🔁
↦ Fabio Pacheco
88′
90′
🟨 Joao Camacho
90′
🟥 Joao Camacho
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Moreirense

4-4-2
18 Jhonatan G
5 Ruben Lima D
23 R. Halliche D
2 João Aurélio D
4 Iago Santos D
6 Fabio Pacheco M
22 Chiquinho M
31 M. Ndiaye M
73 Heriberto Tavares M
11 Nenê F
77 Arsénio M
Bench (7)
9 D. Texeira
27 Pedro Nuno
91 Neto
10 B. Aouacheria
14 Ivanildo Fernandes
37 Bruno Silva
88 Pedro Trigueira

Coach: Ivo Vieira

Nacional

4-2-3-1
96 Lucas França G
20 Filipe Ferreira D
33 L. Rosić D
44 Julio D
22 Kalindi D
21 Sérgio Marakis M
80 Vítor Gonçalves M
8 Jota M
9 O. Hamzaoui F
11 K. Gorré F
23 Witi M
Bench (7)
26 A. Paločević
19 João Camacho
7 G. Arabidze
1 O. Framelin
2 Nuno Campos
4 Diogo Coelho
35 B. Rochez

Coach: Costinha

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Mota da Silva · 63 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,40 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.