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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Malheiro Pinto

Nacional

S T T T T

0–0

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

56% Possession 44%

16 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

20 Free kicks against 26

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 15. · Vitoria Setubal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	19	16	1	2	+30	49
2	Sp Braga	20	14	4	2	+21	46
3	Benfica	19	14	2	3	+25	44
4	Sp Lisbon	19	12	3	4	+16	39
5	Guimaraes	19	9	4	6	+5	31
6	Moreirense	19	10	1	8	-3	31
7	Belenenses	19	7	8	4	+2	29
8	Portimonense	19	8	3	8	-3	27
9	Rio Ave	20	6	7	7	-1	25
10	Santa Clara	19	6	3	10	-3	21
11	Vitoria Setubal	19	5	5	9	-4	20
12	Tondela	20	5	5	10	-6	20
13	Maritimo	20	6	2	12	-12	20
14	Boavista	20	5	4	11	-11	19
15	Nacional	19	5	4	10	-15	19
16	Aves	20	5	3	12	-12	18
17	Chaves	20	5	3	12	-13	18
18	Feirense	20	2	8	10	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Sp Braga	10	9	1	0	+16	28
3	Porto	10	9	0	1	+20	27
4	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+16	22
5	Moreirense	9	6	1	2	+4	19
6	Portimonense	10	5	3	2	+5	18
7	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+4	17
8	Rio Ave	11	4	5	2	+2	17
9	Belenenses	9	4	3	2	+3	15
10	Boavista	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Aves	11	3	3	5	-1	12
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-3	11
14	Chaves	10	3	2	5	-3	11
15	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-5	10
16	Nacional	10	3	1	6	-9	10
17	Feirense	9	1	5	3	-2	8
18	Santa Clara	10	2	1	7	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	7	1	1	+10	22
2	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+9	22
3	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+5	18
4	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Guimaraes	10	4	2	4	+1	14
6	Belenenses	10	3	5	2	-1	14
7	Moreirense	10	4	0	6	-7	12
8	Sp Lisbon	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-7	10
10	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-3	9
11	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	3	5	-4	9
12	Nacional	9	2	3	4	-6	9
13	Portimonense	9	3	0	6	-8	9
14	Rio Ave	9	2	2	5	-3	8
15	Chaves	10	2	1	7	-10	7
16	Boavista	10	1	3	6	-10	6
17	Aves	9	2	0	7	-11	6
18	Feirense	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.