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Primeira Liga

Referee: Andre Filipe Domingues Narciso

Tondela

U U T S T

1–1

Full-time

Nacional

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 13. · Nacional 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
3	Benfica	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Sp Lisbon	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Santa Clara	6	2	2	2	+2	8
8	Feirense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Guimaraes	6	2	1	3	-1	7
10	Chaves	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Moreirense	6	2	1	3	-5	7
12	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-3	6
13	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Boavista	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Aves	6	1	1	4	-4	4
17	Portimonense	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+8	9
2	Sp Braga	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Rio Ave	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+3	7
6	Maritimo	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Feirense	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Aves	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Chaves	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Tondela	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Portimonense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
14	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Belenenses	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Belenenses	3	1	2	0	+1	5
5	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
6	Sp Lisbon	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Rio Ave	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Nacional	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Feirense	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Chaves	3	1	0	2	-5	3
15	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Aves	3	0	0	3	-6	0
18	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.