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Serie A
Referee: Fabio Maresca
Atalanta
T T S S S
4–1
Full-time
Inter
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Inter
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,7
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,2
This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 55%
36%
73%
Points per game
1,4
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
55%
55%
Both score Ø 32%
36%
27%
Average goals
2,9
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,9
Conceded
1,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
19 Shots 9
9 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 3
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Atalanta 11. · Inter 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 11 10 1 0 +16 31
2 Napoli 12 9 1 2 +13 28
3 Inter 11 8 1 2 +15 25
4 Milan 11 6 3 2 +7 21
5 Lazio 11 7 0 4 +4 21
6 Sassuolo 11 5 3 3 +3 18
7 Fiorentina 12 4 5 3 +8 17
8 Torino 12 4 5 3 +2 17
9 Parma 12 5 2 5 -3 17
10 Roma 11 4 4 3 +4 16
11 Atalanta 11 4 3 4 +6 15
12 Sampdoria 11 4 3 4 +4 15
13 Cagliari 12 3 5 4 -4 14
14 Genoa 12 4 2 6 -9 14
15 Spal 12 4 1 7 -8 13
16 Udinese 11 2 3 6 -6 9
17 Bologna 11 2 3 6 -7 9
18 Frosinone 12 1 4 7 -15 7
19 Empoli 11 1 3 7 -10 6
20 Chievo 11 0 2 9 -20 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Inter
1–0 H. Hateboer
R. Gosens
8′
25′
🟨 Matías Vecino
35′
🟨 Marcelo Brozović
41′
🟨 Milan Škriniar
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Borja Valero
↦ M. Vecino
47′
M. Icardi 1–1
T. Castagne 🔁
↦ Rafael Tolói
56′
2–1 G. Mancini
J. Iličić
62′
66′
🔁 K. Baldé
↦ M. Politano
Hans Hateboer 🟨
69′
M. Pašalić 🔁
↦ D. Zapata
71′
71′
🔁 Š. Vrsaljko
↦ João Miranda
75′
🟨 Roberto Gagliardini
Marten de Roon 🟨
77′
Alejandro Gómez 🟨
79′
3–1 B. Djimsiti
J. Iličić
88′
90′
🟨 Marcelo Brozović
90′
🟥 Marcelo Brozović
4–1 A. Gómez
M. de Roon
94′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-4-2-1
1 E. Berisha G
2 Rafael Tolói D
19 B. Djimsiti D
33 H. Hateboer M
8 R. Gosens M
23 G. Mancini D
10 A. Gómez F
72 J. Iličić F
15 M. de Roon M
11 R. Freuler M
91 D. Zapata F
Bench (11)
21 T. Castagne
88 M. Pašalić
22 M. Pessina
53 Ali Adnan
99 M. Barrow
13 D. Bettella
4 L. Valzania
24 E. Rigoni
95 P. Gollini
31 F. Rossi
44 D. Kulusevski

Coach: G. Gasperini

Inter

4-3-3
1 S. Handanovič G
23 João Miranda D
33 D. D'Ambrosio D
37 M. Škriniar D
44 I. Perišić M
18 K. Asamoah D
8 M. Vecino M
77 M. Brozović M
5 R. Gagliardini M
9 M. Icardi F
16 M. Politano F
Bench (11)
20 Borja Valero
11 K. Baldé
2 Š. Vrsaljko
10 Lautaro Martínez
13 A. Ranocchia
15 João Mário
87 A. Candreva
6 S. de Vrij
14 R. Nainggolan
29 Dalbert Henrique
27 D. Padelli

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Fabio Maresca · 57 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,42 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.