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Ligue 1

Referee: Nicolas Rainville

Marseille

S S U U S

5–0

Full-time

Caen

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Caen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,5

1,3

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 55%

55%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

55%

Both score Ø 32%

55%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,9

0,7

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

28 Shots 11

11 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

13 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 9

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 5. · Caen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+31	32
2	Monaco	12	9	1	2	+22	28
3	Nantes	12	7	2	3	+2	23
4	Lyon	11	6	4	1	+12	22
5	Marseille	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	St Etienne	11	5	3	3	+3	18
7	Caen	11	6	0	5	+0	18
8	Montpellier	12	4	4	4	+1	16
9	Bordeaux	12	4	4	4	-2	16
10	Rennes	12	4	3	5	-1	15
11	Troyes	12	4	3	5	-3	15
12	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-5	15
13	Guingamp	12	4	2	6	-8	14
14	Angers	12	2	7	3	-3	13
15	Nice	12	4	1	7	-5	13
16	Dijon	12	3	3	6	-7	12
17	Amiens	11	3	2	6	-6	11
18	Strasbourg	12	2	4	6	-10	10
19	Lille	10	1	3	6	-9	6
20	Metz	11	1	0	10	-16	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Monaco	6	5	1	0	+17	16
3	Lyon	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Nantes	6	4	1	1	+3	13
5	Caen	6	4	0	2	+1	12
6	St Etienne	6	3	2	1	+5	11
7	Guingamp	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Nice	7	3	1	3	+3	10
9	Bordeaux	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Toulouse	5	3	1	1	+2	10
11	Montpellier	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Marseille	5	2	2	1	+3	8
13	Troyes	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Rennes	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Dijon	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Amiens	4	2	0	2	+0	6
17	Strasbourg	5	1	2	2	+1	5
18	Lille	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Angers	6	0	3	3	-7	3
20	Metz	5	0	0	5	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	2	0	+13	14
2	Marseille	6	4	1	1	+1	13
3	Monaco	6	4	0	2	+5	12
4	Angers	6	2	4	0	+4	10
5	Nantes	6	3	1	2	-1	10
6	Lyon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
7	Rennes	6	2	2	2	+0	8
8	Troyes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Montpellier	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	St Etienne	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Caen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Bordeaux	7	1	3	3	-5	6
13	Dijon	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Amiens	7	1	2	4	-6	5
15	Toulouse	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Strasbourg	7	1	2	4	-11	5
17	Metz	6	1	0	5	-7	3
18	Nice	5	1	0	4	-8	3
19	Guingamp	6	1	0	5	-10	3
20	Lille	4	0	1	3	-5	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.