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Ligue 1
Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry
Caen
T S S T T
1–0
Full-time
Troyes
T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Troyes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
1,7
2,3
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 40%
50%
30%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 30%
10%
50%
Both score Ø 30%
10%
50%
Average goals
1,5
2,3
Scored
0,7
0,9
Conceded
0,8
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%
16 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 6
4 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Caen 9. · Troyes 13.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 11 9 2 0 +26 29
2 Monaco 11 8 1 2 +16 25
3 Nantes 10 6 2 2 +2 20
4 Lyon 10 5 4 1 +10 19
5 Marseille 10 5 3 2 +3 18
6 St Etienne 10 5 2 3 +3 17
7 Bordeaux 11 4 4 3 -1 16
8 Montpellier 10 4 3 3 +2 15
9 Caen 10 5 0 5 -1 15
10 Toulouse 10 4 2 4 -4 14
11 Guingamp 10 4 1 5 -2 13
12 Angers 10 2 6 2 +2 12
13 Troyes 10 3 3 4 -5 12
14 Nice 11 3 1 7 -6 10
15 Rennes 10 2 3 5 -3 9
16 Amiens 9 3 0 6 -6 9
17 Dijon 10 2 3 5 -7 9
18 Strasbourg 10 2 3 5 -7 9
19 Lille 9 1 3 5 -8 6
20 Metz 10 1 0 9 -14 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.