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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Caen

U T U T T

1–3

Full-time

Marseille

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

30%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

40%

35%

Both score Ø 48%

40%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

38% Possession 62%

7 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 9

1 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 4

6 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 6. · Marseille 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	21	18	3	0	+42	57
2	Monaco	21	9	9	3	+4	36
3	Angers	21	9	7	5	+7	34
4	Nice	21	9	6	6	+10	33
5	Rennes	21	7	10	4	+6	31
6	Caen	20	9	3	8	-3	30
7	Lyon	20	8	5	7	+3	29
8	St Etienne	20	9	2	9	-1	29
9	Bordeaux	21	7	8	6	-3	29
10	Nantes	21	7	7	7	-2	28
11	Lorient	21	6	9	6	-1	27
12	Marseille	20	6	8	6	+7	26
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	21	6	8	7	-2	26
14	Lille	21	5	10	6	+1	25
15	Bastia	21	7	4	10	-5	25
16	Montpellier	21	6	4	11	-5	22
17	Reims	21	5	7	9	-7	22
18	Guingamp	21	5	6	10	-10	21
19	Toulouse	21	4	8	9	-11	20
20	Troyes	21	0	8	13	-30	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+23	25
2	Bastia	11	7	0	4	+6	21
3	Bordeaux	11	6	3	2	+5	21
4	St Etienne	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Angers	11	4	6	1	+4	18
6	Lyon	10	5	2	3	+7	17
7	Nice	10	5	1	4	+5	16
8	Lorient	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Caen	10	5	1	4	-4	16
10	Lille	10	4	3	3	+4	15
11	Nantes	10	4	3	3	+0	15
12	Montpellier	11	5	0	6	-1	15
13	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	10	3	5	2	+2	14
14	Monaco	10	3	5	2	-1	14
15	Guingamp	10	3	4	3	+1	13
16	Reims	11	3	4	4	+0	13
17	Marseille	11	2	6	3	+6	12
18	Toulouse	10	2	5	3	+0	11
19	Rennes	10	2	5	3	-2	11
20	Troyes	12	0	6	6	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+19	32
2	Monaco	11	6	4	1	+5	22
3	Rennes	11	5	5	1	+8	20
4	Nice	11	4	5	2	+5	17
5	Angers	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Caen	10	4	2	4	+1	14
7	Marseille	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Lyon	10	3	3	4	-4	12
10	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	11	3	3	5	-4	12
11	Lorient	10	2	5	3	-5	11
12	Lille	11	1	7	3	-3	10
13	Reims	10	2	3	5	-7	9
14	St Etienne	10	3	0	7	-8	9
15	Toulouse	11	2	3	6	-11	9
16	Bordeaux	10	1	5	4	-8	8
17	Guingamp	11	2	2	7	-11	8
18	Montpellier	10	1	4	5	-4	7
19	Bastia	10	0	4	6	-11	4
20	Troyes	9	0	2	7	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.