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Ligue 1

Referee: Amaury Delerue

Caen

T T T U T

1–5

Full-time

Marseille

U U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Caen Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

2,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+1,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 34%

26%

41%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

41%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

35%

44%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

4 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Caen 17. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	34	26	5	3	+66	83
2	Paris SG	34	25	5	4	+48	80
3	Nice	34	21	11	2	+28	74
4	Lyon	35	18	4	13	+26	58
5	Bordeaux	34	15	10	9	+10	55
6	Marseille	34	14	10	10	+10	52
7	St Etienne	34	12	13	9	+8	49
8	Nantes	35	13	9	13	-13	48
9	Rennes	35	10	14	11	-7	44
10	Guingamp	35	12	8	15	-9	44
11	Lille	35	12	7	16	-4	43
12	Toulouse	35	10	12	13	-3	42
13	Montpellier	35	10	9	16	-13	39
14	Angers	35	11	6	18	-13	39
15	Metz	35	10	9	16	-34	39
16	Lorient	35	10	4	21	-24	34
17	Caen	34	9	6	19	-25	33
18	Dijon	34	7	11	16	-10	32
19	Nancy	35	8	8	19	-20	32
20	Bastia	35	7	11	17	-21	32

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	15	1	1	+44	46
2	Nice	17	13	4	0	+23	43
3	Paris SG	17	12	5	0	+30	41
4	Marseille	17	11	4	2	+18	37
5	Lyon	17	11	0	6	+19	33
6	Rennes	17	9	6	2	+11	33
7	Guingamp	17	10	3	4	+10	33
8	Bordeaux	18	9	5	4	+8	32
9	Toulouse	17	8	5	4	+11	29
10	St Etienne	17	7	8	2	+11	29
11	Montpellier	18	8	5	5	+8	29
12	Metz	18	7	6	5	-7	27
13	Angers	18	7	5	6	+4	26
14	Nantes	18	7	4	7	-8	25
15	Dijon	17	6	5	6	+4	23
16	Lorient	17	7	2	8	-4	23
17	Caen	17	7	2	8	-11	23
18	Bastia	18	4	10	4	+1	22
19	Lille	17	6	3	8	-1	21
20	Nancy	17	6	3	8	-1	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	0	4	+18	39
2	Monaco	17	11	4	2	+22	37
3	Nice	17	8	7	2	+5	31
4	Lyon	18	7	4	7	+7	25
5	Bordeaux	16	6	5	5	+2	23
6	Nantes	17	6	5	6	-5	23
7	Lille	18	6	4	8	-3	22
8	St Etienne	17	5	5	7	-3	20
9	Marseille	17	3	6	8	-8	15
10	Toulouse	18	2	7	9	-14	13
11	Angers	17	4	1	12	-17	13
12	Metz	17	3	3	11	-27	12
13	Rennes	18	1	8	9	-18	11
14	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-19	11
15	Nancy	18	2	5	11	-19	11
16	Lorient	18	3	2	13	-20	11
17	Caen	17	2	4	11	-14	10
18	Montpellier	17	2	4	11	-21	10
19	Bastia	17	3	1	13	-22	10
20	Dijon	17	1	6	10	-14	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.