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Serie A

Referee: Marco Di Bello

Fiorentina

T S S S T

2–4

Full-time

Roma

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,0

This season — Serie A · 11/10 matches

Win Ø 63%

45%

80%

Points per game

1,5

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

82%

40%

Both score Ø 38%

55%

20%

Average goals

2,9

2,2

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

48% Possession 52%

19 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 8. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	11	10	1	0	+24	31
2	Inter	12	9	3	0	+14	30
3	Juventus	11	9	1	1	+23	28
4	Lazio	11	9	1	1	+19	28
5	Roma	10	8	0	2	+12	24
6	Sampdoria	11	7	2	2	+11	23
7	Torino	12	4	5	3	-2	17
8	Fiorentina	11	5	1	5	+6	16
9	Milan	11	5	1	5	+0	16
10	Atalanta	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Chievo	11	4	3	4	-5	15
12	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-4	14
13	Udinese	11	4	0	7	-4	12
14	Crotone	12	3	3	6	-12	12
15	Cagliari	11	3	0	8	-11	9
16	Spal	11	2	2	7	-10	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Genoa	12	1	3	8	-9	6
19	Verona	11	1	3	7	-17	6
20	Benevento	11	0	0	11	-25	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Juventus	6	5	0	1	+13	15
3	Sampdoria	5	5	0	0	+13	15
4	Napoli	5	4	1	0	+13	13
5	Atalanta	6	4	1	1	+8	13
6	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	12
7	Lazio	5	3	1	1	+8	10
8	Fiorentina	5	3	1	1	+4	10
9	Milan	6	3	1	2	+0	10
10	Udinese	6	3	0	3	+0	9
11	Torino	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Crotone	6	2	2	2	-2	8
13	Chievo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Spal	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Cagliari	5	2	0	3	-2	6
16	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Verona	6	1	1	4	-10	4
18	Sassuolo	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Genoa	6	0	1	5	-7	1
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lazio	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Napoli	6	6	0	0	+11	18
3	Inter	6	4	2	0	+6	14
4	Juventus	5	4	1	0	+10	13
5	Roma	4	4	0	0	+8	12
6	Bologna	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Torino	7	2	3	2	-5	9
8	Sampdoria	6	2	2	2	-2	8
9	Chievo	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	Fiorentina	6	2	0	4	+2	6
11	Milan	5	2	0	3	+0	6
12	Sassuolo	6	2	0	4	-9	6
13	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-10	4
15	Udinese	5	1	0	4	-4	3
16	Cagliari	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Atalanta	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Verona	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Spal	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Benevento	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.