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Serie A

Referee: Michael Fabbri

Spal

T T T U T

0–1

Full-time

Sassuolo

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Sassuolo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

0,7

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 13%

13%

Points per game

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

38%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

50%

38%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

0,9

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Spal 18. · Sassuolo 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	Inter	9	7	2	0	+12	23
3	Juventus	8	6	1	1	+14	19
4	Lazio	8	6	1	1	+11	19
5	Sampdoria	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Roma	7	5	0	2	+9	15
7	Chievo	9	4	3	2	+1	15
8	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+0	14
9	Torino	8	3	4	1	+1	13
10	Milan	8	4	0	4	-1	12
11	Fiorentina	8	3	1	4	+1	10
12	Atalanta	8	2	3	3	+0	9
13	Udinese	8	2	0	6	-2	6
14	Cagliari	8	2	0	6	-8	6
15	Crotone	9	1	3	5	-13	6
16	Verona	9	1	3	5	-13	6
17	Genoa	8	1	2	5	-5	5
18	Spal	8	1	2	5	-7	5
19	Sassuolo	8	1	2	5	-11	5
20	Benevento	8	0	0	8	-17	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	5	4	0	1	+10	12
2	Sampdoria	4	4	0	0	+10	12
3	Inter	4	4	0	0	+7	12
4	Napoli	4	3	1	0	+11	10
5	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Atalanta	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Udinese	4	2	0	2	+3	6
11	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	6
12	Torino	3	1	2	0	+3	5
13	Bologna	4	1	2	1	-2	5
14	Crotone	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Spal	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Verona	5	1	1	3	-9	4
17	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Sassuolo	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Benevento	4	0	0	4	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Lazio	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Inter	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Roma	3	3	0	0	+7	9
5	Bologna	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	Chievo	5	2	2	1	+0	8
7	Torino	5	2	2	1	-2	8
8	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Sampdoria	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Fiorentina	4	1	0	3	+0	3
12	Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
13	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Sassuolo	4	1	0	3	-8	3
15	Atalanta	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Verona	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Spal	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-10	1
19	Udinese	4	0	0	4	-5	0
20	Benevento	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.