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Serie A

Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni

Spal

S T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Crotone

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

18 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

12 Corners 6

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 15. · Crotone 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	7	7	0	0	+20	21
2	Juventus	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	Inter	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Roma	5	4	0	1	+8	12
6	Milan	6	4	0	2	+2	12
7	Torino	6	3	2	1	+1	11
8	Sampdoria	6	3	2	1	+0	11
9	Bologna	7	3	2	2	-1	11
10	Atalanta	6	2	2	2	+2	8
11	Chievo	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Fiorentina	6	2	1	3	+1	7
13	Udinese	7	2	0	5	-1	6
14	Cagliari	7	2	0	5	-7	6
15	Spal	6	1	1	4	-6	4
16	Sassuolo	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Genoa	7	0	2	5	-6	2
19	Verona	6	0	2	4	-13	2
20	Benevento	6	0	0	6	-15	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+11	9
3	Inter	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Milan	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	6
6	Udinese	4	2	0	2	+3	6
7	Roma	3	2	0	1	+3	6
8	Sampdoria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
9	Torino	2	1	1	0	+3	4
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Crotone	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Spal	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-3	2
16	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sassuolo	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Verona	4	0	1	3	-10	1
20	Benevento	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+9	12
2	Lazio	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Bologna	4	3	0	1	+2	9
4	Inter	3	2	1	0	+4	7
5	Chievo	4	2	1	1	+0	7
6	Torino	4	2	1	1	-2	7
7	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Sampdoria	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Fiorentina	3	1	0	2	+1	3
11	Milan	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Cagliari	4	1	0	3	-5	3
14	Atalanta	3	0	2	1	-2	2
15	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Verona	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Spal	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Udinese	3	0	0	3	-4	0
19	Crotone	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Benevento	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.