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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Aves

T S T U U

1–3

Full-time

Benfica

U S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

13%

63%

Points per game

0,8

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

63%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 20

4 Shots on target 12

0 Blocked shots 4

9 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 16. · Benfica 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	9	8	1	0	+21	25
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Benfica	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Maritimo	9	5	1	3	+1	16
5	Sp Braga	8	5	0	3	+6	15
6	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Boavista	9	4	1	4	+2	13
8	Belenenses	9	4	1	4	-3	13
9	Feirense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	+1	10
11	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-7	10
12	Tondela	9	2	3	4	+0	9
13	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-7	9
14	Chaves	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-6	7
16	Aves	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Moreirense	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Estoril	9	2	0	7	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+18	15
2	Maritimo	5	4	1	0	+4	13
3	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Belenenses	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	3	0	+4	9
9	Boavista	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	-2	9
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	2	0	+2	8
12	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
13	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
14	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Aves	4	1	1	2	-3	4
17	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
5	Benfica	4	1	2	1	+0	5
6	Boavista	5	1	1	3	+0	4
7	Feirense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Maritimo	4	1	0	3	-3	3
12	Belenenses	5	1	0	4	-6	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-11	3
14	Aves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
15	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Guimaraes	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Pacos Ferreira	5	0	1	4	-9	1
18	Portimonense	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.