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Serie A
Referee: Fabio Maresca
Atalanta
U S U U T
1–0
Full-time
Bologna
T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Bologna
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,2
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,2
This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
25%
50%
Points per game
1,1
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 51%
63%
38%
Both score Ø 69%
88%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,0
Scored
1,6
1,0
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%
21 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 0
9 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Corners 3
12 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Atalanta 12. · Bologna 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 9 8 1 0 +21 25
2 Inter 9 7 2 0 +12 23
3 Juventus 8 6 1 1 +14 19
4 Lazio 8 6 1 1 +11 19
5 Sampdoria 8 5 2 1 +7 17
6 Roma 7 5 0 2 +9 15
7 Chievo 9 4 3 2 +1 15
8 Bologna 8 4 2 2 +0 14
9 Torino 8 3 4 1 +1 13
10 Milan 8 4 0 4 -1 12
11 Fiorentina 8 3 1 4 +1 10
12 Atalanta 8 2 3 3 +0 9
13 Udinese 8 2 0 6 -2 6
14 Cagliari 8 2 0 6 -8 6
15 Crotone 9 1 3 5 -13 6
16 Verona 9 1 3 5 -13 6
17 Genoa 8 1 2 5 -5 5
18 Spal 8 1 2 5 -7 5
19 Sassuolo 8 1 2 5 -11 5
20 Benevento 8 0 0 8 -17 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Atalanta Bologna
Mattia Caldara 🟨
14′
25′
🔁 E. Krafth
↦ V. Torosidis
Josip Iličić 🟨
30′
Marten de Roon 🟨
40′
42′
🟨 Adam Masina
Half-time 0–0
A. Cornelius 🔁
↦ B. Cristante
51′
56′
🟨 Rodrigo Palacio
59′
🔁 S. De Maio
↦ F. Di Francesco
J. Kurtič 🔁
↦ A. Petagna
66′
71′
🔁 M. Destro
↦ R. Palacio
1–0 A. Cornelius
R. Freuler
71′
74′
🟨 Giancarlo González
R. Gosens 🔁
↦ L. Spinazzola
78′
80′
🟨 Giancarlo González
80′
🟥 Giancarlo González
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Atalanta

3-5-2
1 E. Berisha G
5 A. Masiello D
6 J. Palomino D
37 L. Spinazzola M
21 T. Castagne M
13 M. Caldara D
72 J. Iličić F
15 M. de Roon M
11 R. Freuler M
4 B. Cristante M
29 A. Petagna F
Bench (12)
9 A. Cornelius
27 J. Kurtič
8 R. Gosens
7 R. Orsolini
20 L. Vido
23 F. Melegoni
28 G. Mancini
31 F. Rossi
32 N. Haas
33 H. Hateboer
91 P. Gollini
95 A. Bastoni

Coach: G. Gasperini

Bologna

4-3-3
83 A. Mirante G
35 V. Torosidis D
3 G. González D
18 F. Helander D
25 A. Masina D
16 A. Poli M
5 E. Pulgar M
77 G. Donsah M
24 R. Palacio F
9 S. Verdi F
14 F. Di Francesco F
Bench (12)
4 E. Krafth
6 S. De Maio
10 M. Destro
1 Angelo da Costa
2 Á. Nagy
7 B. Petković
11 L. Krejčí
12 L. Crisetig
17 J. Valencia
20 D. Maietta
21 C. Falletti
34 F. Ravaglia

Coach: R. Donadoni

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Fabio Maresca · 57 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,42 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.