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Serie A

Referee: Rosario Abisso

Milan

T S S T S

2–0

Full-time

Spal

U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Spal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

25%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

100%

25%

Both score Ø 46%

67%

25%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 50%

75%

25%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

100%

25%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

19 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 8

0 Offside 5

19 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Spal 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+13	12
3	Juventus	4	4	0	0	+10	12
4	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+5	10
5	Roma	4	3	0	1	+6	9
6	Milan	4	3	0	1	+2	9
7	Torino	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	Sampdoria	3	2	1	0	+2	7
9	Fiorentina	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Cagliari	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Bologna	5	1	2	2	-3	5
12	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-2	4
13	Chievo	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Spal	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Udinese	4	1	0	3	-2	3
16	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Sassuolo	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Crotone	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Verona	4	0	1	3	-10	1
20	Benevento	5	0	0	5	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Milan	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Torino	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Lazio	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Roma	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Sampdoria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Cagliari	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Udinese	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Spal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-3	2
15	Chievo	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Crotone	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Genoa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Benevento	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Verona	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Roma	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Sampdoria	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	+2	3
9	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Cagliari	3	1	0	2	-2	3
12	Chievo	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Atalanta	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Spal	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	Verona	2	0	1	1	-3	1
17	Crotone	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Udinese	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Benevento	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.