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Serie A

Referee: Luca Banti

Frosinone

U T S T T

2–4

Full-time

Milan

U T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Frosinone Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,2

2,0

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

3,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

25%

44%

Points per game

0,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 47%

44%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

0,9

1,3

Conceded

1,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

29% Possession 71%

15 Shots 22

6 Shots on target 10

3 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 11

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

5 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Frosinone 18. · Milan 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	16	11	3	2	+13	36
2	Fiorentina	17	11	2	4	+18	35
3	Napoli	17	10	5	2	+18	35
4	Juventus	17	10	3	4	+14	33
5	Roma	17	9	5	3	+14	32
6	Sassuolo	16	7	6	3	+5	27
7	Empoli	17	8	3	6	+1	27
8	Milan	16	7	4	5	+1	25
9	Atalanta	17	7	3	7	+0	24
10	Chievo	17	6	4	7	+3	22
11	Torino	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Lazio	16	6	2	8	-7	20
13	Bologna	17	6	1	10	-5	19
14	Palermo	16	5	3	8	-7	18
15	Udinese	16	5	3	8	-10	18
16	Sampdoria	16	4	5	7	-4	17
17	Genoa	17	4	4	9	-8	16
18	Frosinone	16	4	2	10	-15	14
19	Carpi	17	2	4	11	-18	10
20	Verona	17	0	8	9	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fiorentina	9	7	1	1	+15	22
2	Napoli	8	6	2	0	+11	20
3	Roma	8	6	1	1	+11	19
4	Inter	8	6	1	1	+6	19
5	Juventus	8	5	2	1	+7	17
6	Lazio	9	5	2	2	+6	17
7	Milan	8	5	2	1	+3	17
8	Atalanta	8	5	1	2	+7	16
9	Torino	8	4	3	1	+6	15
10	Sassuolo	7	4	3	0	+4	15
11	Sampdoria	8	4	2	2	+5	14
12	Empoli	8	4	1	3	+2	13
13	Frosinone	8	4	1	3	+1	13
14	Genoa	8	4	1	3	+1	13
15	Chievo	8	3	2	3	+3	11
16	Palermo	9	3	2	4	-2	11
17	Bologna	9	3	1	5	+0	10
18	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-5	8
19	Carpi	9	1	3	5	-4	6
20	Verona	9	0	4	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	8	5	2	1	+7	17
2	Juventus	9	5	1	3	+7	16
3	Napoli	9	4	3	2	+7	15
4	Empoli	9	4	2	3	-1	14
5	Roma	9	3	4	2	+3	13
6	Fiorentina	8	4	1	3	+3	13
7	Sassuolo	9	3	3	3	+1	12
8	Chievo	9	3	2	4	+0	11
9	Udinese	8	3	1	4	-5	10
10	Bologna	8	3	0	5	-5	9
11	Milan	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Atalanta	9	2	2	5	-7	8
13	Torino	7	2	1	4	-4	7
14	Palermo	7	2	1	4	-5	7
15	Verona	8	0	4	4	-7	4
16	Carpi	8	1	1	6	-14	4
17	Genoa	9	0	3	6	-9	3
18	Sampdoria	8	0	3	5	-9	3
19	Lazio	7	1	0	6	-13	3
20	Frosinone	8	0	1	7	-16	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.