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Bundesliga
Referee: Peter Sippel
Hertha
S S T S S
2–0
Full-time
Mainz
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,8
This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 50%
56%
44%
Points per game
1,8
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
50%
63%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,6
2,8
Scored
1,5
1,4
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

60% Possession 40%
7 Shots 5
5 Shots on target 0
0 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hertha 3. · Mainz 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 17 15 1 1 +38 46
2 Dortmund 17 12 2 3 +24 38
3 Hertha 16 9 2 5 +6 29
4 Leverkusen 17 8 3 6 +5 27
5 Schalke 04 17 8 3 6 +0 27
6 Wolfsburg 17 7 5 5 +5 26
7 M'gladbach 16 8 2 6 +3 26
8 Mainz 16 7 3 6 +2 24
9 FC Koln 17 6 6 5 -3 24
10 Hamburg 17 6 4 7 -4 22
11 FC Ingolstadt 04 17 5 5 7 -7 20
12 Augsburg 17 5 4 8 -5 19
13 Darmstadt 16 4 6 6 -8 18
14 Ein Frankfurt 17 4 5 8 -7 17
15 Stuttgart 17 4 3 10 -15 15
16 Werder Bremen 17 4 3 10 -15 15
17 Hannover 17 4 2 11 -11 14
18 Hoffenheim 17 2 7 8 -8 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hertha Mainz
1–0 V. Darida
V. Ibišević
34′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 P. De Blasis
↦ C. Clemens
2–0 S. Kalou
V. Ibišević
54′
65′
🔁 J. Córdoba
↦ Y. Mutō
65′
🔁 F. Niederlechner
↦ D. Latza
J. Hegeler 🔁
↦ F. Lustenberger
77′
A. Baumjohann 🔁
↦ V. Darida
83′
V. Stocker 🔁
↦ S. Kalou
87′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Hertha

22 R. Jarstein G
28 F. Lustenberger M
15 S. Langkamp D
21 M. Plattenhardt D
25 J. Brooks D
3 P. Skjelbred M
24 G. Haraguchi M
6 V. Darida M
20 M. Weiser D
19 V. Ibišević F
8 S. Kalou M
Bench (7)
13 J. Hegeler
9 A. Baumjohann
14 V. Stocker
17 T. Cigerci
23 J. van den Bergh
35 M. Gersbeck
39 Y. Regäsel

Mainz

1 L. Karius G
7 P. Bengtsson D
26 N. Bungert D
18 D. Brosinski D
16 S. Bell D
14 J. Baumgartlinger M
6 D. Latza M
27 C. Clemens M
10 Y. Malli M
17 Jairo Samperio M
9 Y. Mutō F
Bench (7)
32 P. De Blasis
15 J. Córdoba
31 F. Niederlechner
2 G. Jara
8 C. Moritz
23 G. Curci
42 A. Hack

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Peter Sippel · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
2,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.