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Primeira Liga

Referee: Luis Godinho

Tondela

T T T T T

1–3

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 20%

31%

Points per game

0,4

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

23%

62%

Both score Ø 43%

31%

54%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

0,4

1,8

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

61% Possession 39%

17 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 3

0 Offside 5

25 Free kicks against 19

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Vitoria Setubal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	2	0	+18	35
2	Porto	13	10	3	0	+21	33
3	Benfica	13	9	1	3	+22	28
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+12	24
5	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+4	21
6	Pacos Ferreira	13	6	2	5	+4	20
7	Arouca	14	4	7	3	+2	19
8	Guimaraes	14	5	4	5	-4	19
9	Vitoria Setubal	13	4	6	3	+3	18
10	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-7	17
11	Estoril	14	4	4	6	-6	16
12	Nacional	13	4	3	6	-1	15
13	Belenenses	13	3	4	6	-15	13
14	Moreirense	13	2	5	6	-8	11
15	U. Madeira	13	2	5	6	-11	11
16	Boavista	13	2	4	7	-8	10
17	Academica	13	2	4	7	-13	10
18	Tondela	13	1	2	10	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+9	16
4	Rio Ave	7	5	0	2	+4	15
5	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
6	Pacos Ferreira	7	4	1	2	+7	13
7	Estoril	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Nacional	6	3	2	1	+4	11
9	Arouca	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Belenenses	6	3	2	1	+1	11
11	Maritimo	6	3	1	2	+2	10
12	U. Madeira	7	2	3	2	-2	9
13	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
14	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	5	1	-1	8
15	Academica	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Moreirense	6	1	3	2	-2	6
17	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-2	5
18	Tondela	7	1	1	5	-7	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	19
2	Porto	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+1	11
4	Guimaraes	7	3	2	2	-4	11
5	Benfica	6	3	1	2	+6	10
6	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	1	2	+4	10
7	Arouca	7	1	5	1	+0	8
8	Pacos Ferreira	6	2	1	3	-3	7
9	Maritimo	8	2	1	5	-9	7
10	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	+0	6
11	Boavista	7	1	2	4	-6	5
12	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-5	4
14	Estoril	7	1	1	5	-9	4
15	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
16	U. Madeira	6	0	2	4	-9	2
17	Belenenses	7	0	2	5	-16	2
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.