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La Liga

Referee: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva

Real Madrid

T T S S T

10–2

Full-time

Vallecano

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — La Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

60%

27%

Points per game

2,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

60%

67%

Both score Ø 47%

40%

53%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–2

50% Possession 50%

30 Shots 9

15 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Vallecano 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	15	11	2	2	+21	35
2	Ath Madrid	15	11	2	2	+15	35
3	Real Madrid	15	9	3	3	+19	30
4	Celta	15	8	4	3	+4	28
5	Villarreal	15	8	3	4	+4	27
6	La Coruna	16	6	8	2	+9	26
7	Sevilla	16	6	5	5	+2	23
8	Valencia	16	5	7	4	+7	22
9	Ath Bilbao	15	6	3	6	+4	21
10	Eibar	16	5	6	5	+0	21
11	Betis	16	5	5	6	-6	20
12	Espanol	16	6	2	8	-10	20
13	Sociedad	15	4	4	7	-3	16
14	Getafe	16	4	4	8	-8	16
15	Sp Gijon	15	4	3	8	-8	15
16	Malaga	15	3	5	7	-5	14
17	Granada	15	3	5	7	-8	14
18	Vallecano	15	4	2	9	-11	14
19	Las Palmas	16	3	4	9	-11	13
20	Levante	15	2	5	8	-15	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	Villarreal	8	6	1	1	+7	19
3	Ath Madrid	8	6	1	1	+6	19
4	Sevilla	8	6	0	2	+7	18
5	Real Madrid	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Getafe	8	4	2	2	+7	14
7	Valencia	8	3	5	0	+7	14
8	Celta	8	4	2	2	+2	14
9	Espanol	8	4	2	2	-2	14
10	La Coruna	8	3	4	1	+6	13
11	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+6	13
12	Eibar	8	3	3	2	+1	12
13	Las Palmas	8	3	2	3	+0	11
14	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-3	10
15	Malaga	7	2	3	2	+2	9
16	Sociedad	7	2	2	3	-1	8
17	Sp Gijon	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Betis	8	1	3	4	-5	6
19	Levante	8	1	3	4	-6	6
20	Granada	7	1	2	4	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
2	Real Madrid	8	4	2	2	+9	14
3	Celta	7	4	2	1	+2	14
4	Betis	8	4	2	2	-1	14
5	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	La Coruna	8	3	4	1	+3	13
7	Granada	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Eibar	8	2	3	3	-1	9
9	Valencia	8	2	2	4	+0	8
10	Ath Bilbao	8	2	2	4	-2	8
11	Sociedad	8	2	2	4	-2	8
12	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Sp Gijon	8	2	1	5	-6	7
14	Espanol	8	2	0	6	-8	6
15	Sevilla	8	0	5	3	-5	5
16	Malaga	8	1	2	5	-7	5
17	Levante	7	1	2	4	-9	5
18	Vallecano	7	1	1	5	-8	4
19	Las Palmas	8	0	2	6	-11	2
20	Getafe	8	0	2	6	-15	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.