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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Brych

Freiburg

U T S S T

2–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 38%

41%

34%

Points per game

1,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

69%

59%

Both score Ø 64%

66%

62%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

11 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 9. · Leverkusen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	21	7	2	+56	70
2	RB Leipzig	29	19	4	6	+25	61
3	Dortmund	30	16	8	6	+30	56
4	Hoffenheim	30	14	13	3	+25	55
5	Hertha	30	14	4	12	+3	46
6	Werder Bremen	30	12	6	12	-1	42
7	FC Koln	30	10	11	9	+6	41
8	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	8	11	-2	41
9	Freiburg	29	12	5	12	-15	41
10	M'gladbach	30	11	6	13	-5	39
11	Schalke 04	29	10	7	12	+4	37
12	Leverkusen	29	10	6	13	-2	36
13	Mainz	30	9	6	15	-10	33
14	Wolfsburg	30	9	6	15	-13	33
15	Hamburg	30	9	6	15	-25	33
16	Augsburg	30	8	8	14	-20	32
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	30	8	4	18	-21	28
18	Darmstadt	30	6	3	21	-35	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	4	0	+42	37
2	RB Leipzig	15	12	1	2	+20	37
3	Hertha	15	12	1	2	+16	37
4	Dortmund	14	11	3	0	+27	36
5	Hoffenheim	15	10	5	0	+20	35
6	Schalke 04	15	8	3	4	+14	27
7	FC Koln	15	7	6	2	+9	27
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	6	2	+8	27
9	Freiburg	14	8	1	5	-4	25
10	M'gladbach	15	7	3	5	+8	24
11	Hamburg	15	7	3	5	-5	24
12	Werder Bremen	15	7	1	7	+4	22
13	Mainz	15	6	4	5	+3	22
14	Leverkusen	15	5	5	5	+2	20
15	Darmstadt	15	5	3	7	-8	18
16	Wolfsburg	15	5	2	8	-4	17
17	Augsburg	15	4	5	6	-7	17
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	4	3	8	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	10	3	2	+14	33
2	RB Leipzig	14	7	3	4	+5	24
3	Hoffenheim	15	4	8	3	+5	20
4	Dortmund	16	5	5	6	+3	20
5	Werder Bremen	15	5	5	5	-5	20
6	Leverkusen	14	5	1	8	-4	16
7	Wolfsburg	15	4	4	7	-9	16
8	Freiburg	15	4	4	7	-11	16
9	M'gladbach	15	4	3	8	-13	15
10	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-13	15
11	FC Koln	15	3	5	7	-3	14
12	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	2	9	-10	14
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	15	4	1	10	-12	13
14	Mainz	15	3	2	10	-13	11
15	Schalke 04	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Hertha	15	2	3	10	-13	9
17	Hamburg	15	2	3	10	-20	9
18	Darmstadt	15	1	0	14	-27	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.