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Bundesliga
Referee: Bastian Dankert
Leverkusen
S T T S U
1–0
Full-time
Augsburg
S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Augsburg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
2,5
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
2,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 27%
31%
23%
Points per game
1,2
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
62%
69%
Both score Ø 74%
62%
85%
Average goals
3,4
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,5
Conceded
1,9
1,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

62% Possession 38%
21 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
4 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Leverkusen 11. · Augsburg 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 13 10 3 0 +24 33
2 M'gladbach 13 8 2 3 +14 26
3 RB Leipzig 13 7 4 2 +14 25
4 Bayern Munich 13 7 3 3 +7 24
5 Ein Frankfurt 13 7 2 4 +14 23
6 Hoffenheim 13 6 3 4 +9 21
7 Werder Bremen 14 6 3 5 +1 21
8 Hertha 13 5 5 3 +1 20
9 Wolfsburg 13 5 3 5 +0 18
10 Mainz 13 5 3 5 -2 18
11 Leverkusen 13 4 3 6 -6 15
12 Schalke 04 13 4 2 7 -4 14
13 Freiburg 13 3 5 5 -6 14
14 Augsburg 13 3 4 6 -2 13
15 Nurnberg 13 2 5 6 -16 11
16 Stuttgart 13 3 2 8 -17 11
17 Hannover 13 2 3 8 -13 9
18 Fortuna Dusseldorf 14 2 3 9 -18 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen Augsburg
Half-time 0–0
Leon Bailey 🟨
50′
62′
🔁 Ji Dong-Won
↦ A. Finnbogason
Wendell 🔁
↦ J. Tah
64′
65′
🟨 Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
J. Brandt 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
73′
L. Alario 🔁
↦ C. Aránguiz
73′
1–0 L. Alario
L. Bender
75′
82′
🔁 M. Richter
↦ A. Hahn
88′
🔁 S. Córdova
↦ Caiuby
90′
🟨 Marco Richter
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hradecky G
6 A. Dragović D
16 T. Jedvaj D
4 J. Tah D
8 L. Bender M
20 C. Aránguiz M
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
38 K. Bellarabi M
29 K. Havertz M
31 K. Volland F
9 L. Bailey M
Bench (7)
18 Wendell
10 J. Brandt
13 L. Alario
11 I. Thelin
21 D. Kohr
23 M. Weiser
28 R. Özcan

Coach: H. Herrlich

Augsburg

4-1-4-1
1 A. Luthe G
36 M. Hinteregger D
6 J. Gouweleeuw D
31 P. Max D
32 R. Framberger D
10 D. Baier M
30 Caiuby M
28 A. Hahn F
11 M. Gregoritsch M
8 R. Khedira M
27 A. Finnbogason F
Bench (7)
22 Ji Dong-Won
23 M. Richter
21 S. Córdova
13 F. Giefer
17 J. Schmid
19 Koo Ja-Cheol
38 K. Danso

Coach: M. Baum

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Bastian Dankert · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.