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Bundesliga

Referee: Tobias Welz

Freiburg

S U T U T

3–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

2,7

1,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 39%

23%

54%

Points per game

1,1

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

69%

38%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

3 Corners 12

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 13. · RB Leipzig 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	13	10	3	0	+24	33
2	M'gladbach	13	8	2	3	+14	26
3	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+14	25
4	Bayern Munich	13	7	3	3	+7	24
5	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	2	4	+14	23
6	Hoffenheim	13	6	3	4	+9	21
7	Werder Bremen	14	6	3	5	+1	21
8	Hertha	13	5	5	3	+1	20
9	Wolfsburg	13	5	3	5	+0	18
10	Mainz	13	5	3	5	-2	18
11	Leverkusen	13	4	3	6	-6	15
12	Schalke 04	13	4	2	7	-4	14
13	Freiburg	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Augsburg	13	3	4	6	-2	13
15	Nurnberg	13	2	5	6	-16	11
16	Stuttgart	13	3	2	8	-17	11
17	Hannover	13	2	3	8	-13	9
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	2	3	9	-18	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+16	19
2	M'gladbach	6	6	0	0	+15	18
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Hoffenheim	7	3	2	2	+5	11
5	Hertha	6	3	2	1	+2	11
6	Mainz	7	3	2	2	+1	11
7	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+10	10
9	Bayern Munich	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Nurnberg	7	2	3	2	+1	9
11	Schalke 04	6	3	0	3	+0	9
12	Freiburg	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Hannover	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Leverkusen	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Stuttgart	6	2	1	3	-8	7
17	Augsburg	6	1	3	2	+0	6
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	2	0	5	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	0	2	+6	15
2	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Hoffenheim	6	3	1	2	+4	10
5	Wolfsburg	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Hertha	7	2	3	2	-1	9
8	RB Leipzig	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	M'gladbach	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Leverkusen	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Augsburg	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Mainz	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Schalke 04	7	1	2	4	-4	5
14	Freiburg	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Stuttgart	7	1	1	5	-9	4
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	0	3	4	-14	3
17	Hannover	7	0	2	5	-11	2
18	Nurnberg	6	0	2	4	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.