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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Tondela

U T S T T

0–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

18%

64%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 60%

64%

55%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,9

Conceded

1,5

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

8 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 15. · Sp Braga 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	0	2	+19	30
2	Sp Lisbon	11	8	1	2	+10	25
3	Sp Braga	11	7	3	1	+11	24
4	Benfica	11	7	2	2	+12	23
5	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
8	Vitoria Setubal	11	5	2	4	+3	17
9	Moreirense	11	5	1	5	-5	16
10	Santa Clara	11	4	2	5	+0	14
11	Portimonense	12	4	2	6	-8	14
12	Nacional	11	3	3	5	-8	12
13	Aves	11	3	1	7	-5	10
14	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-8	10
15	Tondela	11	2	3	6	-3	9
16	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-7	9
17	Feirense	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Portimonense	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
8	Vitoria Setubal	5	3	0	2	+3	9
9	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Belenenses	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Aves	6	2	1	3	+1	7
12	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Tondela	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
2	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+6	10
3	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Belenenses	6	2	4	0	+2	10
6	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+0	9
7	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	2	2	+0	8
9	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-7	6
11	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
15	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Feirense	6	1	0	5	-8	3
17	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
18	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.