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Primeira Liga
Referee: Luis Miguel Branco Godinho
Belenenses
U S U U S
1–0
Full-time
Chaves
T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Chaves
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,5
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,2
Scored
1,0
0,7
Conceded
1,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,8
This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 23%
27%
18%
Points per game
1,4
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 41%
27%
55%
Both score Ø 41%
36%
45%
Average goals
1,8
2,5
Scored
0,9
0,8
Conceded
0,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,8
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%
12 Shots 14
6 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 6
3 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 18
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 9. · Chaves 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 12 10 0 2 +19 30
2 Sp Lisbon 11 8 1 2 +10 25
3 Sp Braga 11 7 3 1 +11 24
4 Benfica 11 7 2 2 +12 23
5 Guimaraes 11 5 3 3 +4 18
6 Rio Ave 11 5 3 3 +2 18
7 Vitoria Setubal 11 5 2 4 +3 17
8 Moreirense 11 5 1 5 -5 16
9 Belenenses 11 3 6 2 +0 15
10 Santa Clara 11 4 2 5 +0 14
11 Portimonense 12 4 2 6 -8 14
12 Nacional 11 3 3 5 -8 12
13 Aves 11 3 1 7 -5 10
14 Maritimo 11 3 1 7 -8 10
15 Tondela 11 2 3 6 -3 9
16 Boavista 11 2 3 6 -7 9
17 Feirense 11 2 3 6 -8 9
18 Chaves 11 2 1 8 -9 7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.