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Championship

Referee: Gavin Ward

Wigan

T T U S U

0–1

Full-time

Derby

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wigan Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

This season — Championship · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 44%

35%

53%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 57%

45%

68%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

33% Possession 67%

7 Shots 16

2 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wigan 15. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	12	4	4	+13	40
2	Leeds	19	10	6	3	+13	36
3	West Brom	20	10	5	5	+14	35
4	Middlesbrough	20	9	8	3	+9	35
5	Nott'm Forest	20	8	10	2	+11	34
6	Derby	19	10	4	5	+9	34
7	Sheffield United	20	10	4	6	+8	34
8	Aston Villa	20	8	7	5	+9	31
9	Birmingham	20	7	9	4	+6	30
10	Blackburn	20	7	8	5	-4	29
11	QPR	20	8	4	8	-5	28
12	Stoke	20	6	9	5	+0	27
13	Swansea	20	7	5	8	+1	26
14	Bristol City	20	7	5	8	+0	26
15	Wigan	20	7	4	9	-5	25
16	Sheffield Weds	20	6	5	9	-11	23
17	Brentford	20	5	7	8	+2	22
18	Preston	20	5	7	8	-4	22
19	Hull	20	5	5	10	-9	20
20	Rotherham	20	4	8	8	-11	20
21	Reading	20	4	6	10	-6	18
22	Millwall	20	4	6	10	-9	18
23	Bolton	20	4	6	10	-13	18
24	Ipswich	20	1	8	11	-18	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	10	6	3	1	+11	21
2	Wigan	10	6	3	1	+6	21
3	Norwich	10	7	0	3	+4	21
4	West Brom	10	6	2	2	+13	20
5	Derby	9	6	2	1	+7	20
6	Aston Villa	10	5	4	1	+7	19
7	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+5	19
8	Birmingham	10	4	6	0	+8	18
9	Sheffield United	10	5	3	2	+6	18
10	Middlesbrough	10	5	3	2	+4	18
11	Brentford	10	5	2	3	+8	17
12	Blackburn	10	4	5	1	+3	17
13	Rotherham	10	4	5	1	+3	17
14	Preston	10	4	4	2	+7	16
15	QPR	10	5	1	4	+2	16
16	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+2	15
17	Stoke	10	4	3	3	+1	15
18	Swansea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
19	Sheffield Weds	10	3	4	3	-3	13
20	Bristol City	10	3	3	4	+0	12
21	Reading	10	3	2	5	+1	11
22	Hull	10	2	3	5	-4	9
23	Bolton	10	2	2	6	-8	8
24	Ipswich	10	0	6	4	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	5	4	1	+9	19
2	Middlesbrough	10	4	5	1	+5	17
3	Sheffield United	10	5	1	4	+2	16
4	Nott'm Forest	10	3	6	1	+6	15
5	Leeds	9	4	3	2	+2	15
6	West Brom	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Derby	10	4	2	4	+2	14
8	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	+0	14
9	Aston Villa	10	3	3	4	+2	12
10	Stoke	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Swansea	10	3	3	4	-1	12
12	Birmingham	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Blackburn	10	3	3	4	-7	12
14	QPR	10	3	3	4	-7	12
15	Hull	10	3	2	5	-5	11
16	Bolton	10	2	4	4	-5	10
17	Sheffield Weds	10	3	1	6	-8	10
18	Reading	10	1	4	5	-7	7
19	Preston	10	1	3	6	-11	6
20	Brentford	10	0	5	5	-6	5
21	Ipswich	10	1	2	7	-12	5
22	Wigan	10	1	1	8	-11	4
23	Millwall	10	0	3	7	-11	3
24	Rotherham	10	0	3	7	-14	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.