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Bundesliga

Referee: Benjamin Brand

Hamburg

S T U S S

1–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

43%

Points per game

1,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

57%

64%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

20 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 8. · Mainz 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	13	1	0	+37	40
2	Dortmund	14	10	2	2	+21	32
3	Wolfsburg	14	7	4	3	+8	25
4	Schalke 04	15	7	3	5	+0	24
5	M'gladbach	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Hertha	14	7	2	5	+1	23
7	Leverkusen	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Hamburg	14	6	3	5	-1	21
9	Mainz	14	6	2	6	+0	20
10	FC Koln	14	5	5	4	-3	20
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	14	5	4	5	-4	19
12	Darmstadt	14	3	6	5	-5	15
13	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	5	6	-4	14
14	Hannover	15	4	2	9	-9	14
15	Werder Bremen	14	4	1	9	-14	13
16	Augsburg	14	2	4	8	-8	10
17	Stuttgart	14	3	1	10	-17	10
18	Hoffenheim	14	1	6	7	-8	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	8	0	0	+27	24
2	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+17	19
3	Wolfsburg	7	6	1	0	+15	19
4	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+1	14
5	Hertha	6	4	1	1	+4	13
6	M'gladbach	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Mainz	8	4	0	4	+0	12
8	Leverkusen	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	FC Koln	7	2	4	1	+1	10
10	Hamburg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Darmstadt	8	1	4	3	-4	7
13	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Hannover	7	2	0	5	-3	6
15	Stuttgart	7	2	0	5	-9	6
16	Augsburg	8	1	2	5	-5	5
17	Hoffenheim	7	0	4	3	-4	4
18	Werder Bremen	7	1	0	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+4	13
3	Hamburg	8	4	1	3	-2	13
4	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	3	3	2	-2	12
5	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+3	10
6	Schalke 04	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Leverkusen	7	3	1	3	-1	10
8	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	-3	10
9	Hertha	8	3	1	4	-3	10
10	FC Koln	7	3	1	3	-4	10
11	Mainz	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Darmstadt	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	Ein Frankfurt	8	2	2	4	-2	8
14	Hannover	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Wolfsburg	7	1	3	3	-7	6
16	Augsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Hoffenheim	7	1	2	4	-4	5
18	Stuttgart	7	1	1	5	-8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.