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Bundesliga
Referee: Jochen Drees
Bayern Munich
S S S U U
2–0
Full-time
M'gladbach
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 57%
71%
43%
Points per game
2,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
57%
57%
Both score Ø 50%
43%
57%
Average goals
3,1
2,9
Scored
2,6
1,4
Conceded
0,6
1,4
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%
17 Shots 3
5 Shots on target 0
3 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 1
1 Offside 1
4 Free kicks against 11
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · M'gladbach 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 7 5 2 0 +14 17
2 Hertha 8 5 2 1 +5 17
3 Hoffenheim 8 4 4 0 +6 16
4 FC Koln 8 4 3 1 +7 15
5 RB Leipzig 7 4 3 0 +7 15
6 Dortmund 8 4 2 2 +10 14
7 Ein Frankfurt 8 4 2 2 +5 14
8 Freiburg 8 4 0 4 -2 12
9 Mainz 7 3 2 2 +2 11
10 M'gladbach 7 3 2 2 +0 11
11 Leverkusen 8 3 1 4 -1 10
12 Augsburg 8 2 2 4 -4 8
13 Darmstadt 8 2 2 4 -7 8
14 Werder Bremen 7 2 1 4 -9 7
15 Wolfsburg 8 1 3 4 -6 6
16 Schalke 04 7 1 1 5 -4 4
17 FC Ingolstadt 04 8 0 2 6 -10 2
18 Hamburg 8 0 2 6 -13 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Bayern Munich M'gladbach
1–0 A. Vidal
Rafinha
16′
2–0 Douglas Costa
D. Alaba
31′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 T. Jantschke
↦ J. Hofmann
65′
🔁 N. Schulz
↦ O. Wendt
71′
🟨 Christoph Kramer
T. Müller 🔁
↦ Douglas Costa
73′
78′
🔁 P. Herrmann
↦ A. Hahn
Renato Sanches 🔁
↦ A. Robben
80′
J. Kimmich 🔁
↦ Rafinha
83′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Bayern Munich

4-3-3
1 M. Neuer G
13 Rafinha D
5 M. Hummels D
27 D. Alaba D
10 A. Robben M
14 Xabi Alonso M
8 Javi Martínez M
23 A. Vidal M
11 Douglas Costa M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (7)
25 T. Müller
35 Renato Sanches
32 J. Kimmich
17 J. Boateng
18 Juan Bernat
26 S. Ulreich
29 K. Coman

Coach: C. Ancelotti

M'gladbach

4-2-3-1
1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt D
5 T. Strobl M
4 J. Vestergaard D
30 N. Elvedi D
19 F. Johnson M
13 L. Stindl F
28 A. Hahn F
27 J. Korb M
6 C. Kramer M
23 J. Hofmann M
Bench (7)
24 T. Jantschke
14 N. Schulz
7 P. Herrmann
8 M. Dahoud
20 D. Sow
21 T. Sippel
36 N. Rütten

Coach: A. Schubert

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jochen Drees · 18 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.