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Eredivisie

Referee: Jochem Kamphuis

PSV Eindhoven

S T S U U

1–0

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 45%

56%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

0,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

26 Shots 9

14 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 13

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · Sparta Rotterdam 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	9	9	0	0	+22	27
2	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+14	22
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	3	1	+11	18
4	Heerenveen	8	5	2	1	+11	17
5	Twente	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Vitesse	9	4	2	3	+4	14
7	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	4	1	+5	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam	9	3	3	3	+0	12
9	Den Haag	9	3	1	5	-6	10
10	Excelsior	10	3	1	6	-7	10
11	Nijmegen	9	2	3	4	-7	9
12	Zwolle	10	2	3	5	-11	9
13	Utrecht	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Heracles	9	1	5	3	-3	8
15	Go Ahead Eagles	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	Willem II	9	1	4	4	-8	7
17	Groningen	9	1	3	5	-8	6
18	Roda	9	1	3	5	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+12	12
2	Ajax	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Twente	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	3	0	+4	9
5	Sparta Rotterdam	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Heerenveen	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Vitesse	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Utrecht	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	6
11	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	-4	5
13	Heracles	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Den Haag	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Zwolle	5	1	1	3	-8	4
16	Willem II	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Groningen	5	0	2	3	-9	2
18	Roda	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	PSV Eindhoven	5	4	1	0	+11	13
3	Ajax	4	4	0	0	+9	12
4	Heerenveen	5	3	1	1	+8	10
5	Vitesse	5	2	1	2	+2	7
6	Twente	5	2	1	2	-1	7
7	Den Haag	5	2	0	3	-4	6
8	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-3	5
9	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-3	5
10	Roda	5	1	2	2	-6	5
11	Groningen	4	1	1	2	+1	4
12	AZ Alkmaar	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Heracles	5	0	4	1	-2	4
15	Nijmegen	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Excelsior	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Utrecht	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Go Ahead Eagles	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.