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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Freiburg

T S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Augsburg

T U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Augsburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

43%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

71%

43%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

0 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

0 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 11. · Augsburg 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+14	17
2	FC Koln	7	4	3	0	+8	15
3	RB Leipzig	7	4	3	0	+7	15
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	2	2	+5	14
5	Hertha	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+10	13
7	Hoffenheim	7	3	4	0	+3	13
8	Mainz	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	M'gladbach	7	3	2	2	+0	11
10	Leverkusen	7	3	1	3	+2	10
11	Freiburg	7	3	0	4	-3	9
12	Augsburg	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Werder Bremen	7	2	1	4	-9	7
14	Wolfsburg	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-9	5
16	Schalke 04	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-13	2
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	7	0	1	6	-10	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	FC Koln	4	3	1	0	+6	10
4	M'gladbach	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+5	9
6	Freiburg	3	3	0	0	+4	9
7	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Hoffenheim	4	2	2	0	+2	8
9	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+2	7
11	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
12	Darmstadt	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Mainz	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Schalke 04	3	1	0	2	+0	3
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-8	1
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+5	8
2	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+3	6
5	FC Koln	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Hoffenheim	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Hertha	4	1	2	1	-1	5
8	Wolfsburg	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Augsburg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Dortmund	3	1	0	2	+1	3
11	Leverkusen	4	1	0	3	-2	3
12	Schalke 04	4	0	1	3	-4	1
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-5	1
14	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-5	1
15	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-6	1
16	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-9	1
17	Freiburg	4	0	0	4	-7	0
18	Darmstadt	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.