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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

RB Leipzig

U S S

1–1

Full-time

M'gladbach

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig M'gladbach

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,3

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,0

Scored

2,3

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

9 Shots 3

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 4

15 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 5. · M'gladbach 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+10	9
2	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+10	9
3	Hertha	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	FC Koln	3	2	1	0	+5	7
7	M'gladbach	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	-1	6
9	Wolfsburg	4	1	2	1	-2	5
10	Mainz	3	1	1	1	+1	4
11	Hoffenheim	4	0	4	0	+0	4
12	Darmstadt	4	1	1	2	-7	4
13	Leverkusen	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-6	1
16	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-7	1
17	Schalke 04	3	0	0	3	-5	0
18	Werder Bremen	3	0	0	3	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+3	6
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Wolfsburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
14	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-4	1
15	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+4	4
2	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+3	3
4	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Mainz	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Hoffenheim	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	FC Koln	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	FC Ingolstadt 04	2	0	1	1	-2	1
12	Leverkusen	2	0	0	2	-2	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Hamburg	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Schalke 04	2	0	0	2	-3	0
16	Freiburg	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-8	0
18	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.