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Ligue 1

Referee: Ruddy Buquet

Lille

T T T S T

2–1

Full-time

Bastia

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

0,7

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

22%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

44%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

56%

22%

Average goals

2,6

1,7

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

17 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 18. · Bastia 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	7	2	0	+11	23
2	Monaco	10	7	1	2	+15	22
3	Paris SG	9	6	1	2	+12	19
4	Toulouse	9	5	2	2	+7	17
5	Guingamp	10	5	2	3	+4	17
6	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Rennes	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Lyon	10	4	1	5	+2	13
9	St Etienne	9	3	4	2	+2	13
10	Angers	9	4	1	4	+0	13
11	Metz	9	4	1	4	-7	13
12	Marseille	9	3	3	3	+1	12
13	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-3	11
14	Bastia	9	3	1	5	-1	10
15	Caen	9	3	1	5	-8	10
16	Montpellier	10	2	4	4	-9	10
17	Dijon	9	2	3	4	-2	9
18	Lille	9	2	1	6	-7	7
19	Lorient	9	2	0	7	-9	6
20	Nancy	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Monaco	5	4	1	0	+10	13
3	Rennes	5	4	1	0	+6	13
4	Toulouse	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	St Etienne	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Marseille	5	3	2	0	+4	11
7	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+8	10
8	Guingamp	4	3	1	0	+3	10
9	Lyon	5	3	0	2	+4	9
10	Caen	4	3	0	1	-2	9
11	Dijon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
12	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Angers	4	2	1	1	+2	7
14	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+1	7
15	Bastia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Lille	4	2	0	2	-2	6
17	Lorient	5	2	0	3	-4	6
18	Metz	4	2	0	2	-7	6
19	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Nancy	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	5	3	0	2	+5	9
2	Paris SG	5	3	0	2	+4	9
3	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Guingamp	6	2	1	3	+1	7
5	Bordeaux	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Nantes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Metz	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Angers	5	2	0	3	-2	6
9	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	5
10	Nancy	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Bastia	4	1	0	3	-1	3
13	St Etienne	4	0	2	2	-3	2
14	Montpellier	5	0	2	3	-10	2
15	Marseille	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Lille	5	0	1	4	-5	1
17	Caen	5	0	1	4	-6	1
18	Dijon	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Lorient	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.