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Championship

Referee: Scott Duncan

Aston Villa

S T S S S

1–1

Full-time

Derby

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,2

This season — Championship · 41/42 matches

Win Ø 50%

54%

45%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

51%

48%

Both score Ø 45%

44%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

24 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

4 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 4. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	44	30	8	6	+46	98
2	Cardiff	44	26	8	10	+28	86
3	Fulham	42	24	12	6	+35	84
4	Aston Villa	41	22	9	10	+29	75
5	Middlesbrough	42	21	8	13	+21	71
6	Derby	42	19	13	10	+20	70
7	Millwall	44	18	15	11	+12	69
8	Brentford	44	18	14	12	+12	68
9	Preston	44	17	16	11	+9	67
10	Bristol City	44	17	15	12	+10	66
11	Sheffield United	44	19	9	16	+7	66
12	Leeds	44	16	9	19	-6	57
13	Norwich	44	14	15	15	-8	57
14	Ipswich	44	16	8	20	-7	56
15	Sheffield Weds	44	13	14	17	-5	53
16	QPR	44	14	11	19	-12	53
17	Nott'm Forest	44	15	7	22	-13	52
18	Hull	44	11	15	18	+2	48
19	Reading	44	10	13	21	-18	43
20	Birmingham	44	12	7	25	-30	43
21	Bolton	44	9	13	22	-34	40
22	Barnsley	44	8	14	22	-23	38
23	Burton Albion	44	9	11	24	-44	38
24	Sunderland	45	6	16	23	-31	34

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	16	4	2	+29	52
2	Cardiff	22	16	3	3	+24	51
3	Fulham	22	13	7	2	+23	46
4	Aston Villa	20	13	5	2	+22	44
5	Middlesbrough	21	13	3	5	+15	42
6	Sheffield United	22	12	5	5	+14	41
7	Millwall	22	11	7	4	+11	40
8	Bristol City	22	11	6	5	+14	39
9	Derby	21	11	5	5	+17	38
10	QPR	22	11	5	6	+5	38
11	Brentford	22	9	10	3	+13	37
12	Leeds	22	9	6	7	+3	33
13	Preston	22	8	8	6	+4	32
14	Ipswich	22	9	5	8	+2	32
15	Nott'm Forest	22	10	2	10	-2	32
16	Birmingham	22	9	3	10	-5	30
17	Hull	22	7	8	7	+11	29
18	Norwich	22	7	8	7	-1	29
19	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	+2	28
20	Bolton	22	8	4	10	-9	28
21	Reading	22	5	8	9	-6	23
22	Barnsley	22	4	9	9	-9	21
23	Burton Albion	22	3	5	14	-26	14
24	Sunderland	22	2	7	13	-19	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	22	14	4	4	+17	46
2	Fulham	20	11	5	4	+12	38
3	Preston	22	9	8	5	+5	35
4	Cardiff	22	10	5	7	+4	35
5	Derby	21	8	8	5	+3	32
6	Aston Villa	21	9	4	8	+7	31
7	Brentford	22	9	4	9	-1	31
8	Middlesbrough	21	8	5	8	+6	29
9	Millwall	22	7	8	7	+1	29
10	Norwich	22	7	7	8	-7	28
11	Bristol City	22	6	9	7	-4	27
12	Sheffield United	22	7	4	11	-7	25
13	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-7	25
14	Leeds	22	7	3	12	-9	24
15	Ipswich	22	7	3	12	-9	24
16	Burton Albion	22	6	6	10	-18	24
17	Sunderland	23	4	9	10	-12	21
18	Nott'm Forest	22	5	5	12	-11	20
19	Reading	22	5	5	12	-12	20
20	Hull	22	4	7	11	-9	19
21	Barnsley	22	4	5	13	-14	17
22	QPR	22	3	6	13	-17	15
23	Birmingham	22	3	4	15	-25	13
24	Bolton	22	1	9	12	-25	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.