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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Newcastle

S U T T T

3–3

Full-time

Man United

T T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

20%

45%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

45%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

54% Possession 46%

14 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 18. · Man United 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	20	13	3	4	+16	42
2	Leicester	20	11	7	2	+12	40
3	Man City	20	12	3	5	+18	39
4	Tottenham	20	9	9	2	+18	36
5	Man United	20	9	6	5	+7	33
6	West Ham	20	8	8	4	+7	32
7	Crystal Palace	20	9	4	7	+4	31
8	Liverpool	20	8	6	6	-2	30
9	Watford	20	8	5	7	+3	29
10	Stoke	20	8	5	7	+0	29
11	Everton	20	6	9	5	+7	27
12	West Brom	20	7	5	8	-5	26
13	Southampton	20	6	6	8	+2	24
14	Chelsea	20	6	5	9	-3	23
15	Norwich	20	6	5	9	-9	23
16	Bournemouth	20	5	6	9	-12	21
17	Swansea	20	4	7	9	-9	19
18	Newcastle	20	4	5	11	-16	17
19	Sunderland	20	4	3	13	-17	15
20	Aston Villa	20	1	5	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	8	0	2	+17	24
2	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Tottenham	10	5	4	1	+11	19
4	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
5	Leicester	10	5	4	1	+3	19
6	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+4	16
7	Norwich	10	4	3	3	+2	15
8	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+0	15
9	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+4	14
10	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
11	Watford	11	4	2	5	+1	14
12	Crystal Palace	11	4	2	5	+0	14
13	West Brom	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Everton	11	3	4	4	+3	13
15	Stoke	9	4	1	4	+1	13
16	Swansea	10	3	4	3	-3	13
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	+1	11
18	Newcastle	10	2	4	4	+0	10
19	Bournemouth	9	2	4	3	-3	10
20	Aston Villa	9	0	3	6	-7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	10	6	3	1	+9	21
2	Arsenal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
3	Tottenham	10	4	5	1	+7	17
4	Crystal Palace	9	5	2	2	+4	17
5	West Ham	10	4	4	2	+3	16
6	Stoke	11	4	4	3	-1	16
7	Watford	9	4	3	2	+2	15
8	Man City	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Liverpool	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Everton	9	3	5	1	+4	14
11	Man United	10	4	2	4	-1	14
12	West Brom	9	3	3	3	-2	12
13	Bournemouth	11	3	2	6	-9	11
14	Southampton	10	2	4	4	-2	10
15	Chelsea	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-11	8
17	Newcastle	10	2	1	7	-16	7
18	Swansea	10	1	3	6	-6	6
19	Aston Villa	11	1	2	8	-14	5
20	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-18	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.