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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Stoke

T T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 30%

18%

41%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

59%

35%

Both score Ø 50%

56%

44%

Average goals

2,8

1,9

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 19. · Burnley 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	33	28	3	2	+68	87
2	Man United	34	23	5	6	+39	74
3	Liverpool	35	20	11	4	+43	71
4	Tottenham	34	20	8	6	+35	68
5	Chelsea	34	19	6	9	+25	63
6	Arsenal	33	16	6	11	+17	54
7	Burnley	34	14	10	10	+3	52
8	Leicester	34	11	11	12	+2	44
9	Everton	34	11	9	14	-15	42
10	Newcastle	33	11	8	14	-7	41
11	Bournemouth	35	9	11	15	-17	38
12	Watford	35	10	8	17	-18	38
13	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-15	36
14	West Ham	33	8	11	14	-18	35
15	Crystal Palace	35	8	11	16	-18	35
16	Huddersfield	34	9	8	17	-27	35
17	Swansea	33	8	9	16	-19	33
18	Southampton	34	5	14	15	-20	29
19	Stoke	34	6	10	18	-33	28
20	West Brom	35	4	13	18	-25	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	14	1	1	+40	43
2	Man United	17	13	2	2	+27	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+26	41
4	Liverpool	17	11	6	0	+31	39
5	Tottenham	16	10	4	2	+20	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Brighton	18	6	8	4	-2	26
9	Newcastle	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	Burnley	17	7	4	6	+0	25
11	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+3	24
12	Watford	18	6	6	6	-5	24
13	West Ham	16	6	5	5	-1	23
14	Bournemouth	18	6	5	7	-5	23
15	Huddersfield	17	6	5	6	-6	23
16	Swansea	16	6	3	7	-4	21
17	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-5	20
18	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	19
19	Southampton	17	3	7	7	-6	16
20	West Brom	18	2	9	7	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+28	44
2	Tottenham	18	10	4	4	+15	34
3	Man United	17	10	3	4	+12	33
4	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+12	32
5	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+12	30
6	Burnley	17	7	6	4	+3	27
7	Leicester	17	5	5	7	-1	20
8	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-9	16
9	Bournemouth	17	3	6	8	-12	15
10	Crystal Palace	18	3	6	9	-13	15
11	Watford	17	4	2	11	-13	14
12	Arsenal	16	3	4	9	-9	13
13	Southampton	17	2	7	8	-14	13
14	Swansea	17	2	6	9	-15	12
15	West Ham	17	2	6	9	-17	12
16	Everton	17	2	6	9	-20	12
17	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Brighton	16	2	4	10	-13	10
19	West Brom	17	2	4	11	-16	10
20	Stoke	17	1	6	10	-24	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.