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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Man United

S S S T S

2–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,7

Scored

2,0

2,5

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 59%

68%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

53%

68%

Both score Ø 47%

38%

56%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,9

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

9 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 2. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	30	3	2	+76	93
2	Man United	34	23	5	6	+39	74
3	Liverpool	36	20	12	4	+43	72
4	Tottenham	34	20	8	6	+35	68
5	Chelsea	35	20	6	9	+26	66
6	Arsenal	34	17	6	11	+20	57
7	Burnley	36	14	12	10	+3	54
8	Everton	36	13	9	14	-12	48
9	Leicester	35	11	11	13	-3	44
10	Newcastle	35	11	8	16	-9	41
11	Crystal Palace	36	9	11	16	-13	38
12	Bournemouth	36	9	11	16	-18	38
13	Watford	35	10	8	17	-18	38
14	Brighton	35	8	13	14	-15	37
15	West Ham	35	8	11	16	-24	35
16	Huddersfield	35	9	8	18	-29	35
17	Swansea	35	8	9	18	-25	33
18	Southampton	35	6	14	15	-19	32
19	Stoke	36	6	12	18	-33	30
20	West Brom	36	5	13	18	-24	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	15	1	1	+45	46
2	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+29	44
3	Man United	17	13	2	2	+27	41
4	Liverpool	18	11	7	0	+31	40
5	Tottenham	16	10	4	2	+20	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	18	10	3	5	+6	33
8	Burnley	18	7	5	6	+0	26
9	Brighton	18	6	8	4	-2	26
10	Newcastle	18	7	4	7	+1	25
11	Leicester	17	6	6	5	+3	24
12	Watford	18	6	6	6	-5	24
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	5	7	+0	23
14	West Ham	17	6	5	6	-4	23
15	Bournemouth	18	6	5	7	-5	23
16	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-8	23
17	Swansea	17	6	3	8	-5	21
18	Stoke	18	5	5	8	-9	20
19	Southampton	18	4	7	7	-5	19
20	West Brom	18	2	9	7	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	15	2	1	+31	47
2	Tottenham	18	10	4	4	+15	34
3	Chelsea	18	10	3	5	+13	33
4	Man United	17	10	3	4	+12	33
5	Liverpool	18	9	5	4	+12	32
6	Burnley	18	7	7	4	+3	28
7	Leicester	18	5	5	8	-6	20
8	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-10	16
9	Bournemouth	18	3	6	9	-13	15
10	Crystal Palace	18	3	6	9	-13	15
11	Everton	18	3	6	9	-18	15
12	Watford	17	4	2	11	-13	14
13	Arsenal	16	3	4	9	-9	13
14	Southampton	17	2	7	8	-14	13
15	West Brom	18	3	4	11	-15	13
16	West Ham	18	2	6	10	-20	12
17	Swansea	18	2	6	10	-20	12
18	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
19	Brighton	17	2	5	10	-13	11
20	Stoke	18	1	7	10	-24	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.