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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Arsenal

T S S U S

2–1

Full-time

Burnley

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 50%

62%

38%

Points per game

2,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

67%

52%

Both score Ø 55%

67%

43%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,3

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

69% Possession 31%

24 Shots 13

8 Shots on target 7

9 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 6

10 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Burnley 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	21	17	1	3	+30	52
2	Tottenham	22	13	7	2	+29	46
3	Liverpool	22	13	6	3	+24	45
4	Arsenal	21	13	5	3	+26	44
5	Man City	22	13	4	5	+15	43
6	Man United	22	11	8	3	+12	41
7	Everton	22	10	6	6	+10	36
8	West Brom	22	9	5	8	+2	32
9	Stoke	22	7	7	8	-6	28
10	West Ham	22	8	4	10	-7	28
11	Southampton	22	7	6	9	-4	27
12	Bournemouth	22	7	5	10	-7	26
13	Burnley	21	8	2	11	-8	26
14	Watford	22	6	6	10	-13	24
15	Leicester	22	5	6	11	-13	21
16	Middlesbrough	22	4	8	10	-7	20
17	Swansea	22	5	3	14	-25	18
18	Crystal Palace	22	4	4	14	-11	16
19	Hull	21	4	4	13	-25	16
20	Sunderland	22	4	3	15	-22	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Chelsea	10	9	0	1	+22	27
3	Burnley	12	8	1	3	+9	25
4	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+18	23
5	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
6	Everton	11	6	4	1	+12	22
7	Man City	11	6	4	1	+9	22
8	Man United	11	5	5	1	+8	20
9	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+7	20
10	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+4	18
11	Leicester	11	5	3	3	+3	18
12	Southampton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
13	West Ham	11	5	2	4	-4	17
14	Stoke	11	4	4	3	+0	16
15	Watford	11	4	3	4	-2	15
16	Hull	11	3	3	5	-7	12
17	Middlesbrough	11	3	2	6	-3	11
18	Sunderland	11	3	2	6	-6	11
19	Swansea	11	2	2	7	-13	8
20	Crystal Palace	11	2	1	8	-3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	8	1	2	+8	25
2	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+6	22
3	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+15	21
4	Man City	11	7	0	4	+6	21
5	Man United	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Tottenham	11	4	5	2	+9	17
7	Everton	11	4	2	5	-2	14
8	West Brom	11	3	3	5	-5	12
9	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-6	12
10	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
11	Swansea	11	3	1	7	-12	10
12	Middlesbrough	11	1	6	4	-4	9
13	Southampton	11	2	3	6	-6	9
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-8	9
15	Watford	11	2	3	6	-11	9
16	Bournemouth	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Sunderland	11	1	1	9	-16	4
18	Hull	10	1	1	8	-18	4
19	Leicester	11	0	3	8	-16	3
20	Burnley	9	0	1	8	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.