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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Watford

S S T T U

1–2

Full-time

Burnley

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 32/31 matches

Win Ø 35%

31%

39%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

59%

29%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

39%

Average goals

3,1

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,8

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 11. · Burnley 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	31	27	3	1	+67	84
2	Man United	31	21	5	5	+37	68
3	Liverpool	33	19	10	4	+40	67
4	Tottenham	31	19	7	5	+36	64
5	Chelsea	31	17	5	9	+23	56
6	Arsenal	31	15	6	10	+17	51
7	Burnley	31	12	10	9	+2	46
8	Leicester	31	11	10	10	+4	43
9	Everton	33	11	8	14	-15	41
10	Bournemouth	32	9	10	13	-12	37
11	Watford	32	10	7	15	-16	37
12	Newcastle	31	9	8	14	-9	35
13	Brighton	31	8	10	13	-14	34
14	West Ham	31	8	9	14	-18	33
15	Swansea	31	8	7	16	-19	31
16	Huddersfield	32	8	7	17	-28	31
17	Crystal Palace	32	7	9	16	-19	30
18	Southampton	31	5	13	13	-18	28
19	Stoke	32	6	9	17	-32	27
20	West Brom	32	3	11	18	-26	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+41	43
2	Man United	16	13	2	1	+28	41
3	Arsenal	16	12	2	2	+25	38
4	Liverpool	16	10	6	0	+28	36
5	Tottenham	15	10	4	1	+22	34
6	Chelsea	16	10	2	4	+13	32
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Brighton	16	6	6	4	-2	24
9	Leicester	15	6	5	4	+4	23
10	Watford	16	6	5	5	-4	23
11	Newcastle	16	6	4	6	+1	22
12	Burnley	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	West Ham	15	6	4	5	-1	22
14	Bournemouth	16	6	4	6	-3	22
15	Swansea	15	6	2	7	-4	20
16	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	-7	20
17	Stoke	16	5	4	7	-8	19
18	Crystal Palace	16	4	5	7	-6	17
19	Southampton	16	3	7	6	-5	16
20	West Brom	16	2	7	7	-9	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Liverpool	17	9	4	4	+12	31
3	Tottenham	16	9	3	4	+14	30
4	Man United	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Chelsea	15	7	3	5	+10	24
6	Burnley	16	6	6	4	+2	24
7	Leicester	16	5	5	6	+0	20
8	Bournemouth	16	3	6	7	-9	15
9	Watford	16	4	2	10	-12	14
10	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
11	Newcastle	15	3	4	8	-10	13
12	Crystal Palace	16	3	4	9	-13	13
13	Southampton	15	2	6	7	-13	12
14	Swansea	16	2	5	9	-15	11
15	West Ham	16	2	5	9	-17	11
16	Everton	16	2	5	9	-20	11
17	Huddersfield	16	3	2	11	-21	11
18	Brighton	15	2	4	9	-12	10
19	Stoke	16	1	5	10	-24	8
20	West Brom	16	1	4	11	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.