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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Arsenal

S T T U S

4–0

Full-time

Watford

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 43%

53%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 42%

43%

40%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,6

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

69% Possession 31%

19 Shots 7

12 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 3. · Watford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	31	19	9	3	+23	66
2	Tottenham	31	17	10	4	+32	61
3	Arsenal	30	16	7	7	+18	55
4	Man City	30	15	6	9	+20	51
5	West Ham	30	13	11	6	+12	50
6	Man United	30	14	8	8	+11	50
7	Southampton	31	13	8	10	+9	47
8	Stoke	31	13	7	11	-3	46
9	Chelsea	31	11	11	9	+8	44
10	Liverpool	29	12	8	9	+5	44
11	West Brom	30	10	9	11	-7	39
12	Everton	29	9	11	9	+10	38
13	Bournemouth	31	10	8	13	-12	38
14	Watford	30	10	7	13	-2	37
15	Swansea	31	9	9	13	-9	36
16	Crystal Palace	30	9	6	15	-8	33
17	Norwich	31	7	7	17	-22	28
18	Sunderland	30	6	8	16	-19	26
19	Newcastle	30	6	7	17	-26	25
20	Aston Villa	32	3	7	22	-40	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	16	9	5	2	+18	32
2	Leicester	15	9	5	1	+10	32
3	Man City	16	10	1	5	+21	31
4	Man United	14	8	4	2	+12	28
5	Southampton	16	8	3	5	+10	27
6	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+9	27
7	West Ham	14	7	5	2	+8	26
8	Stoke	15	7	2	6	+1	23
9	Swansea	16	6	5	5	-3	23
10	Chelsea	16	5	7	4	+5	22
11	West Brom	16	6	4	6	-2	22
12	Liverpool	13	5	5	3	+2	20
13	Watford	16	5	4	7	+0	19
14	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-3	19
15	Newcastle	15	4	6	5	+0	18
16	Norwich	15	4	5	6	-3	17
17	Everton	16	4	4	8	+1	16
18	Sunderland	14	4	4	6	+1	16
19	Crystal Palace	16	4	2	10	-6	14
20	Aston Villa	16	2	4	10	-18	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Tottenham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
3	Arsenal	16	8	4	4	+9	28
4	West Ham	16	6	6	4	+4	24
5	Liverpool	16	7	3	6	+3	24
6	Stoke	16	6	5	5	-4	23
7	Everton	13	5	7	1	+9	22
8	Chelsea	15	6	4	5	+3	22
9	Man United	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Man City	14	5	5	4	-1	20
11	Southampton	15	5	5	5	-1	20
12	Crystal Palace	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	19
14	Watford	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	West Brom	14	4	5	5	-5	17
16	Swansea	15	3	4	8	-6	13
17	Norwich	16	3	2	11	-19	11
18	Sunderland	16	2	4	10	-20	10
19	Newcastle	15	2	1	12	-26	7
20	Aston Villa	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.