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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Arsenal

S U U S U

1–0

Full-time

Norwich

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 35/34 matches

Win Ø 38%

51%

24%

Points per game

1,8

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

49%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

43%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

68% Possession 32%

14 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Norwich 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	35	22	10	3	+30	76
2	Tottenham	35	19	12	4	+39	69
3	Man City	35	19	7	9	+32	64
4	Arsenal	35	18	10	7	+24	64
5	West Ham	35	15	14	6	+17	59
6	Man United	34	17	8	9	+12	59
7	Liverpool	34	15	10	9	+13	55
8	Southampton	35	15	9	11	+12	54
9	Stoke	36	13	9	14	-14	48
10	Chelsea	34	12	11	11	+7	47
11	Everton	35	10	14	11	+6	44
12	Watford	35	12	8	15	-6	44
13	West Brom	36	10	11	15	-14	41
14	Bournemouth	36	11	8	17	-20	41
15	Swansea	35	10	10	15	-15	40
16	Crystal Palace	36	10	9	17	-10	39
17	Newcastle	36	8	9	19	-25	33
18	Sunderland	35	7	11	17	-18	32
19	Norwich	34	8	7	19	-25	31
20	Aston Villa	36	3	7	26	-45	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	18	11	6	1	+15	39
2	Man City	18	12	1	5	+26	37
3	Man United	17	11	4	2	+16	37
4	Tottenham	18	10	6	2	+21	36
5	Arsenal	17	10	4	3	+15	34
6	West Ham	17	8	7	2	+10	31
7	Southampton	17	9	3	5	+12	30
8	Liverpool	17	7	7	3	+9	28
9	Swansea	17	7	5	5	-2	26
10	Newcastle	18	6	7	5	+4	25
11	Stoke	18	7	4	7	-3	25
12	Watford	18	6	5	7	+1	23
13	Chelsea	17	5	7	5	+2	22
14	West Brom	18	6	4	8	-6	22
15	Everton	18	5	5	8	+2	20
16	Norwich	17	5	5	7	-5	20
17	Bournemouth	18	5	4	9	-11	19
18	Sunderland	17	4	6	7	-1	18
19	Crystal Palace	18	5	3	10	-5	18
20	Aston Villa	18	2	4	12	-21	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	17	11	4	2	+15	37
2	Tottenham	17	9	6	2	+18	33
3	Arsenal	18	8	6	4	+9	30
4	West Ham	18	7	7	4	+7	28
5	Man City	17	7	6	4	+6	27
6	Liverpool	17	8	3	6	+4	27
7	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	25
8	Everton	17	5	9	3	+4	24
9	Southampton	18	6	6	6	+0	24
10	Stoke	18	6	5	7	-11	23
11	Man United	17	6	4	7	-4	22
12	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-9	22
13	Crystal Palace	18	5	6	7	-5	21
14	Watford	17	6	3	8	-7	21
15	West Brom	18	4	7	7	-8	19
16	Swansea	18	3	5	10	-13	14
17	Sunderland	18	3	5	10	-17	14
18	Norwich	17	3	2	12	-20	11
19	Newcastle	18	2	2	14	-29	8
20	Aston Villa	18	1	3	14	-24	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.