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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Stoke

T U S S T

2–0

Full-time

Man City

U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

1,2

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

36%

64%

Points per game

1,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

21%

64%

Both score Ø 40%

29%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,1

Scored

0,8

2,1

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 12. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	9	2	3	+16	29
2	Leicester	14	8	5	1	+8	29
3	Man United	14	8	4	2	+10	28
4	Arsenal	14	8	3	3	+12	27
5	Tottenham	14	6	7	1	+13	25
6	Liverpool	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Crystal Palace	14	7	1	6	+5	22
8	West Ham	14	6	4	4	+4	22
9	Everton	14	5	6	3	+8	21
10	Southampton	14	5	5	4	+3	20
11	Watford	14	5	4	5	-1	19
12	Stoke	14	5	4	5	-3	19
13	West Brom	14	5	3	6	-5	18
14	Chelsea	14	4	3	7	-6	15
15	Swansea	14	3	5	6	-5	14
16	Norwich	14	3	4	7	-8	13
17	Sunderland	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Bournemouth	14	2	4	8	-13	10
19	Newcastle	14	2	4	8	-16	10
20	Aston Villa	14	1	2	11	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	0	2	+13	18
2	Tottenham	8	4	4	0	+9	16
3	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
4	Leicester	7	4	2	1	+2	14
5	Everton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-1	11
8	Southampton	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Crystal Palace	8	3	1	4	+2	10
10	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	West Ham	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Sunderland	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-1	8
15	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
17	West Brom	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-1	6
19	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+8	16
2	Leicester	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+2	14
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+3	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
7	Stoke	8	3	3	2	-1	12
8	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
9	Watford	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	West Brom	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	Everton	7	2	4	1	+3	10
12	Southampton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
13	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
14	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-4	5
15	Chelsea	7	1	2	4	-6	5
16	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-11	4
19	Newcastle	7	1	1	5	-15	4
20	Aston Villa	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.