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Bundesliga
Referee: Manuel Gräfe
1–1
Full-time
Hoffenheim
T U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Ingolstadt 04 Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
0,7
0,8
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,7
This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches
Win Ø 22%
36%
7%
Points per game
1,4
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
21%
57%
Both score Ø 43%
21%
64%
Average goals
1,7
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,1
Conceded
1,0
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

51% Possession 49%
9 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 1
1 Offside 2
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match FC Ingolstadt 04 11. · Hoffenheim 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 14 13 1 0 +37 40
2 Dortmund 14 10 2 2 +21 32
3 Wolfsburg 14 7 4 3 +8 25
4 Schalke 04 15 7 3 5 +0 24
5 M'gladbach 14 7 2 5 +6 23
6 Hertha 14 7 2 5 +1 23
7 Leverkusen 14 6 3 5 +0 21
8 Hamburg 14 6 3 5 -1 21
9 Mainz 14 6 2 6 +0 20
10 FC Koln 14 5 5 4 -3 20
11 FC Ingolstadt 04 14 5 4 5 -4 19
12 Darmstadt 14 3 6 5 -5 15
13 Ein Frankfurt 14 3 5 6 -4 14
14 Hannover 15 4 2 9 -9 14
15 Werder Bremen 14 4 1 9 -14 13
16 Augsburg 14 2 4 8 -8 10
17 Stuttgart 14 3 1 10 -17 10
18 Hoffenheim 14 1 6 7 -8 9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

FC Ingolstadt 04 Hoffenheim
Half-time 0–0
Alfredo Morales 🟨
50′
61′
🔁 K. Kuranyi
↦ T. Elyounoussi
R. Brégerie 🔁
↦ B. Hübner
64′
1–0 Roger
66′
69′
🔁 P. Kaderábek
↦ E. Polanski
74′
🟨 Fabian Schär
78′
🔁 M. Uth
↦ K. Volland
Stefan Lex 🟨
80′
M. Christiansen 🔁
↦ A. Morales
89′
T. Pekhart 🔁
↦ L. Hinterseer
94′
96′
M. Uth 1–1
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

FC Ingolstadt 04

1 R. Özcan G
28 T. Levels D
34 M. Matip D
5 B. Hübner D
8 Roger M
6 A. Morales M
10 P. Groß F
23 R. Bauer D
16 L. Hinterseer F
7 M. Leckie M
14 S. Lex F
Bench (7)
18 R. Brégerie
19 M. Christiansen
11 T. Pekhart
21 D. da Costa
22 S. Wannenwetsch
26 Ø. Nyland
36 A. Cohen

Hoffenheim

1 O. Baumann G
12 T. Strobl M
20 Jin-Su Kim D
5 F. Schär D
25 N. Süle D
8 E. Polanski M
16 P. Schwegler M
14 T. Elyounoussi F
17 S. Zuber M
18 N. Amiri M
31 K. Volland F
Bench (7)
22 K. Kuranyi
3 P. Kaderábek
19 M. Uth
6 S. Rudy
10 J. Schmid
15 J. Toljan
13 J. Grahl

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Gräfe · 72 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
16,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.