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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man City

S S U S U

1–4

Full-time

Liverpool

U U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 50%

42%

58%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

58% Possession 42%

11 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 3

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

11 Corners 5

1 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Liverpool 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	13	8	4	1	+8	28
2	Man United	13	8	3	2	+10	27
3	Man City	12	8	2	2	+17	26
4	Arsenal	13	8	2	3	+12	26
5	Tottenham	12	5	6	1	+10	21
6	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+7	21
7	Everton	13	5	5	3	+8	20
8	Southampton	13	5	5	3	+5	20
9	Crystal Palace	12	6	1	5	+2	19
10	Stoke	13	5	4	4	-1	19
11	Liverpool	12	4	5	3	-1	17
12	West Brom	13	5	2	6	-5	17
13	Watford	13	4	4	5	-2	16
14	Swansea	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	Chelsea	13	4	2	7	-6	14
16	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12
17	Newcastle	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Bournemouth	13	2	3	8	-13	9
19	Sunderland	12	1	3	8	-13	6
20	Aston Villa	13	1	2	10	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+14	15
2	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Leicester	6	4	1	1	+2	13
4	Tottenham	6	3	3	0	+6	12
5	Everton	7	3	2	2	+5	11
6	Arsenal	6	3	2	1	+4	11
7	Southampton	7	3	1	3	+2	10
8	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	+0	10
9	Swansea	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Liverpool	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Watford	7	2	2	3	-2	8
13	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Stoke	6	2	1	3	-2	7
16	West Brom	7	2	1	4	-4	7
17	Newcastle	7	1	3	3	-1	6
18	Sunderland	6	1	2	3	-1	5
19	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	5
20	Aston Villa	6	0	2	4	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	0	2	+8	15
2	Leicester	7	4	3	0	+6	15
3	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
4	Man United	7	4	1	2	+2	13
5	Crystal Palace	6	4	0	2	+3	12
6	Stoke	7	3	3	1	+1	12
7	Man City	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Southampton	6	2	4	0	+3	10
9	West Brom	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+4	9
11	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
12	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+1	9
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-7	5
16	Chelsea	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Bournemouth	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-11	4
19	Aston Villa	7	1	0	6	-10	3
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.