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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Stoke

S S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Chelsea

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

27%

82%

Both score Ø 55%

36%

73%

Average goals

1,9

3,5

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%

8 Shots 19

2 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 7

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 9

3 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 13. · Chelsea 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	8	1	2	+17	25
2	Arsenal	11	8	1	2	+13	25
3	Leicester	12	7	4	1	+5	25
4	Man United	12	7	3	2	+9	24
5	West Ham	12	6	3	3	+7	21
6	Tottenham	11	5	5	1	+10	20
7	Southampton	12	5	5	2	+6	20
8	Everton	12	4	5	3	+4	17
9	Liverpool	11	4	5	2	+0	17
10	Crystal Palace	11	5	1	5	+1	16
11	Watford	12	4	4	4	-1	16
12	West Brom	12	4	2	6	-6	14
13	Stoke	11	3	4	4	-3	13
14	Swansea	12	3	4	5	-4	13
15	Norwich	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Chelsea	11	3	2	6	-6	11
17	Newcastle	12	2	4	6	-9	10
18	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-13	8
19	Sunderland	12	1	3	8	-13	6
20	Aston Villa	11	1	1	9	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+14	15
2	Man United	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Leicester	6	4	1	1	+2	13
4	Tottenham	6	3	3	0	+6	12
5	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Southampton	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	Everton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
8	West Ham	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Swansea	6	2	2	2	-1	8
10	Liverpool	5	2	2	1	-1	8
11	Watford	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Norwich	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Crystal Palace	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Newcastle	6	1	3	2	+2	6
16	Sunderland	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	West Brom	6	1	1	4	-5	4
20	Aston Villa	5	0	1	4	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	West Ham	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+3	12
4	Southampton	6	2	4	0	+3	10
5	Man City	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	West Brom	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
9	Crystal Palace	5	3	0	2	+2	9
10	Liverpool	6	2	3	1	+1	9
11	Stoke	6	2	3	1	+0	9
12	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+4	8
13	Watford	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Norwich	6	1	2	3	-6	5
16	Chelsea	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Newcastle	6	1	1	4	-11	4
18	Aston Villa	6	1	0	5	-6	3
19	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-9	3
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.