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Eredivisie

Referee: Danny Desmond Makkelie

Ajax

S S U S S

5–2

Full-time

Heerenveen

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

3,2

2,3

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,5

This season — Eredivisie · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

79%

29%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

36%

64%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+2,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

65% Possession 35%

22 Shots 14

12 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 1. · Heerenveen 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	14	11	2	1	+31	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	15	10	4	1	+22	34
3	Feyenoord	14	10	2	2	+18	32
4	Heracles	13	8	2	3	+10	26
5	Vitesse	15	7	3	5	+14	24
6	Groningen	14	7	3	4	+0	24
7	Nijmegen	14	7	2	5	+4	23
8	Zwolle	13	6	3	4	+4	21
9	AZ Alkmaar	15	5	3	7	-4	18
10	Heerenveen	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Excelsior	15	4	5	6	-7	17
12	Utrecht	13	4	4	5	-1	16
13	Den Haag	15	3	7	5	-5	16
14	Roda	14	3	5	6	-15	14
15	Willem II	14	2	5	7	-5	11
16	Twente	15	2	4	9	-20	10
17	Cambuur	14	0	7	7	-23	7
18	De Graafschap	15	1	2	12	-22	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	7	6	1	0	+13	19
2	Groningen	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	PSV Eindhoven	6	5	1	0	+10	16
4	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+7	16
5	Heracles	7	5	1	1	+7	16
6	Ajax	6	5	0	1	+18	15
7	Vitesse	8	5	0	3	+10	15
8	Utrecht	6	3	3	0	+5	12
9	Heerenveen	7	3	3	1	+4	12
10	Zwolle	7	3	2	2	-1	11
11	AZ Alkmaar	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Roda	8	2	4	2	-3	10
13	Den Haag	7	1	5	1	+0	8
14	Excelsior	7	2	2	3	-3	8
15	Twente	7	2	1	4	-8	7
16	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-1	6
17	Cambuur	8	0	4	4	-14	4
18	De Graafschap	8	0	1	7	-12	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	8	6	2	0	+13	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	9	5	3	1	+12	18
3	Feyenoord	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Zwolle	6	3	1	2	+5	10
5	Heracles	6	3	1	2	+3	10
6	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+4	9
7	Excelsior	8	2	3	3	-4	9
8	AZ Alkmaar	7	2	2	3	-3	8
9	Den Haag	8	2	2	4	-5	8
10	Nijmegen	7	2	1	4	-3	7
11	Willem II	7	1	2	4	-4	5
12	Heerenveen	7	1	2	4	-5	5
13	Groningen	7	1	2	4	-10	5
14	Utrecht	7	1	1	5	-6	4
15	De Graafschap	7	1	1	5	-10	4
16	Roda	6	1	1	4	-12	4
17	Cambuur	6	0	3	3	-9	3
18	Twente	8	0	3	5	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.