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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Stoke

T U S S S

0–2

Full-time

Watford

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

44%

33%

Average goals

2,1

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

66% Possession 34%

11 Shots 13

0 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

11 Corners 5

8 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stoke 11. · Watford 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	7	0	2	+16	21
2	Arsenal	9	6	1	2	+9	19
3	Man United	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+8	17
5	Leicester	9	4	4	1	+2	16
6	Crystal Palace	9	5	0	4	+2	15
7	Tottenham	9	3	5	1	+4	14
8	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+3	13
9	Everton	9	3	4	2	+1	13
10	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
11	Stoke	9	3	3	3	-1	12
12	Chelsea	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	West Brom	9	3	2	4	-4	11
14	Swansea	9	2	4	3	-1	10
15	Watford	9	2	4	3	-4	10
16	Norwich	9	2	3	4	-6	9
17	Bournemouth	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Newcastle	9	1	3	5	-7	6
19	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4
20	Sunderland	9	0	3	6	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	4	0	1	+13	12
2	Man United	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Tottenham	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
5	Arsenal	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Southampton	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	-1	7
10	Crystal Palace	5	2	0	3	-1	6
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	+2	5
12	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	+1	5
13	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	5
14	Watford	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Sunderland	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Aston Villa	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	+6	12
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Crystal Palace	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Leicester	5	2	3	0	+2	9
6	Man United	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+4	8
8	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+0	8
9	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Southampton	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Liverpool	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Tottenham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Watford	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Norwich	5	1	2	2	-5	5
15	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-4	3
17	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Swansea	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	5	0	1	4	-8	1
20	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.