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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Belenenses

T S T S T

0–3

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

3,2

3,1

Scored

1,1

1,6

Conceded

2,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

60% Possession 40%

18 Shots 12

1 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 13. · Vitoria Setubal 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Porto	11	8	3	0	+19	27
3	Benfica	11	8	0	3	+20	24
4	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+11	20
5	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Pacos Ferreira	11	5	2	4	-1	17
7	Vitoria Setubal	11	3	6	2	+2	15
8	Nacional	11	4	2	5	+0	14
9	Maritimo	11	4	2	5	-4	14
10	Estoril	11	4	2	5	-5	14
11	Arouca	11	2	7	2	+0	13
12	Guimaraes	11	3	4	4	-6	13
13	Belenenses	11	3	4	4	-11	13
14	Moreirense	11	2	4	5	-6	10
15	Boavista	11	2	3	6	-7	9
16	U. Madeira	10	1	4	5	-7	7
17	Academica	12	1	4	7	-14	7
18	Tondela	11	1	2	8	-10	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+16	18
2	Porto	6	5	1	0	+12	16
3	Sp Braga	6	4	1	1	+11	13
4	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+7	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	0	2	+2	12
6	Nacional	5	3	2	0	+5	11
7	Belenenses	5	3	2	0	+4	11
8	Estoril	5	3	2	0	+4	11
9	Maritimo	5	3	1	1	+3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	6	3	1	2	+1	10
11	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	5	0	+1	8
12	Guimaraes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Arouca	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	U. Madeira	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Academica	6	1	2	3	-7	5
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-2	4
18	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+8	16
2	Porto	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Arouca	6	1	5	0	+2	8
4	Guimaraes	6	2	2	2	-5	8
5	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Sp Braga	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Pacos Ferreira	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	Benfica	4	2	0	2	+4	6
9	Rio Ave	5	1	3	1	+2	6
10	Moreirense	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-5	5
12	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-7	4
13	Nacional	6	1	0	5	-5	3
14	Estoril	6	1	0	5	-9	3
15	U. Madeira	5	0	2	3	-3	2
16	Academica	6	0	2	4	-7	2
17	Belenenses	6	0	2	4	-15	2
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.