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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Southampton

U T U S U

2–3

Full-time

Man United

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

40% Possession 60%

15 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 16. · Man United 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	0	1	+10	15
2	West Ham	6	4	0	2	+6	12
3	Leicester	6	3	3	0	+4	12
4	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Arsenal	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Everton	6	2	3	1	+3	9
7	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+2	9
8	Crystal Palace	6	3	0	3	+1	9
9	Tottenham	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Watford	6	2	3	1	+0	9
11	West Brom	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Norwich	5	2	1	2	-1	7
14	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-3	7
15	Liverpool	5	2	1	2	-3	7
16	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Aston Villa	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Stoke	6	0	3	3	-4	3
19	Newcastle	6	0	2	4	-6	2
20	Sunderland	6	0	2	4	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Man United	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Swansea	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Man City	3	2	0	1	+4	6
5	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Watford	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+0	3
13	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	3
16	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Ham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Crystal Palace	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Everton	3	1	2	0	+3	5
7	Leicester	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Watford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Southampton	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-1	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.